Decreasing number of propagating mesoscale convective systems in Bangladesh and surrounding area during 1998–2015

Habib, Shahid; Sato, Toru; Hatsuzuka, Daisuke

doi:10.1002/asl.879

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Observations reported strong Note that the legend is different on c compared to other panels. We recall that only qualitative comparisons should be done between lines (mathematical model) and dots (climate simulations) increases of organized convective systems frequency in the tropical oceans (Tan et al 2015) and in the Sahel (Taylor et al 2017), but decreases in their frequency in Southeast Asia (Habib et al 2019). Regional convection-permitting simulations predict an intensification of these convective systems due to the increased surface atmospheric moisture under a future climate, but a decrease in their frequency, for Africa (Kendon et al 2019) and for the United States (Rasmussen et al (2017) and Dai et al (2017)).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is in sharp contrast with the strengthening of CIN predicted over continents by GCMs and kilometer-scale models (Chen et al (2020), Rasmussen et al (2017) and Fitzpatrick et al (2020)). Also, circulation changes have been shown to play an dominant role in the evolution of convective storms in several other regions (China (Zhang et al 2017), Bangladesh (Habib et al 2019) and the Sahel (Fitzpatrick et al (2020)) but were not investigated in this study. Indeed, only very large-scale and systematic dynamical changes are taken into account with the PGW approach.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

et al. 2021

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Convective storms can cause economic damage and harm to humans by producing flash floods, lightning and severe weather. While organized convection is well studied in the tropics and mid-latitudes, few studies have focused on the physics and climate change impacts of pan-Arctic convective systems. Using a convection-permitting model we showed in a predecessor study that organized convective storm frequency might triple by the end of the century in Alaska assuming a high emission scenario. The present study assesses the reasons for this rapid increase in organized convection by investigating dynamic and thermodynamic changes within future storms and their environments, in light of canonical existing theories for mid-latitude and tropical deep convection. In a future climate, more moisture originates from Arctic marine basins increasing relative humidity over Alaska due to the loss of sea ice, which is in sharp contrast to lower-latitude land regions that are expected to become drier. This increase in relative humidity favors the onset of organized convection through more unstable thermodynamic environments, increased low-level buoyancy, and weaker downdrafts. Our confidence in these results is increased by showing that these changes can be analytically derived from basic physical laws. This suggests that organized thunderstorms might become more frequent in other pan-Arctic continental regions highlighting the uniqueness and vulnerability of these regions to climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

et al. 2021

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“…Finally, changes in wind shear are likely not well represented in this approach, (and indeed no statistically significant change in the wind shear occurs in these simulations). This is still a large unknown of climate change, especially given the fact that most of the observed historical changes in the frequency of convective systems in other regions of the world has been attributed to circulation changes (e.g., changes in the monsoonal circulation in Bangladesh (Habib et al 2019) or changes in dominant synoptic winds in the Sahel (Fitzpatrick et al 2020).) Future kilometer-scale simulations are in progress that will focus on including changes in synoptic conditions and covering longer time periods that allow investigating effects of climate internal variability.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate

2020

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Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming on intense thunderstorms in high latitude continental regions, where they can produce flash flooding or ignite wildfires. We use a model with kilometer-scale grid spacing to simulate Alaska’s climate under present and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. The current climate simulation is able to capture the frequency and intensity of hourly precipitation compared to rain gauge data. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. Peak rainfall rates in the core of the storms will intensify by 37% in line with atmospheric moisture increases. These results could have severe impacts on Alaska’s economy and ecology since floods are already the costliest natural disaster in central Alaska and an increasing number of thunderstorms could result in more wildfires ignitions.

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“…This is in sharp contrast with the strengthening of CIN predicted over continents by GCMs and kilometer-scale models [Chen et al, 2020, Fitzpatrick et al, 2020. Also, circulation changes have been shown to play an dominant role in the evolution of convective storms in several other regions (China [Zhang et al, 2017], Bangladesh [Habib et al, 2019] and the Sahel [Fitzpatrick et al, 2020]) but were not investigated in this study. Therefore, caution should be taken as these results neglect changes that can be of significant magnitude, although uncertainty in the synoptic circulation changes is large.…”

Section: Cold Pool Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…The response of organized convection in Alaska is different to responses that have been reported or modeled in other parts of the world. Observations reported strong increases of organized convective systems frequency in the tropical oceans [Tan et al, 2015] and in the Sahel [Taylor et al, 2017], but decreases in their frequency in Southeast Asia [Habib et al, 2019]. Regional convection-permitting simulations predict an intensification of these convective systems due to the increased surface atmospheric moisture under a future climate, but a decrease in their frequency, for Africa [Kendon et al, 2019] and for the United States [Rasmussen et al, 2017, Dai et al, 2017.…”

Section: Cold Pool Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts of Climate Change on Organized Convection in Alaska

Poujol

Prein

Muller

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Organized convective systems produce heavier downpours and can become more intense with climate change. While organized convection is well studied in the tropics and mid-latitudes, few studies have focused on the physics and climate change impacts of pan-Arctic convective systems, where they can produce flash flooding, landslides, or ignite wildfires.We use a convection-permitting model to simulate Alaska&#8217;s climate under current and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. The present study assesses the reasons for this rapid increase in organized convection by investigating dynamic and thermodynamic changes within future storms and their environments, in light of canonical existing theories for mid-latitude and tropical deep convection.&#160;In a future climate, more moisture originates from Arctic marine basins and relative humidity over continental Alaska is projected to increase due to sea ice loss, which is in sharp contrast to lower-latitude land regions that are expected to become drier. This increase in relative humidity favors the onset of organized convection through more unstable thermodynamic environments, increased low-level buoyancy, and weaker downdrafts.Our confidence in these results is increased by showing that these changes can be analytically derived from basic physical laws. This suggests that organized thunderstorms might become more frequent in other pan-Arctic continental regions highlighting the uniqueness and vulnerability of these regions to climate change.

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Decreasing number of propagating mesoscale convective systems in Bangladesh and surrounding area during 1998–2015

Cited by 10 publications

References 30 publications

Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska

Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts of Climate Change on Organized Convection in Alaska

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