Deep-Racing: An Embedded Deep Neural Network (EDNN) Model to Predict the Winning Strategy in Formula One Racing

Abstract

This paper presents an embedded deep neural network model to predict the driver rank and the optimum pitstop strategy. In formula one racing, the race strategy is critical to determine optimal pitstops and finish the race in the best possible position. Considering a system with only one racing car, the pitstop can be decided just by looking at the degradation of the tires. But in reality, the formula one environment is more complex, and multiple probabilistic factors (like safety car phases, opponent strategy, and overtaking) influence the pitstop decision. Deep-Racing is a prediction and decision algorithm for formula one racing cars that uses neural networks with embedding layers. The algorithm is developed after carefully reviewing formula one racing and appropriate statistical modeling techniques, which can be trained for pre-race and real-time predictions during the race using the data from previous laps. Deep-Racing has the potential to help team principals and race engineers to decide the optimized strategy for making pitstops. It is trained on the data from seasons 2015-2022. This project is the first to utilize an embedded layer in motorsport racing predictions, and the results show an improvement in predictive accuracy compared with the previously available literature. This paper significantly expands the previous research in this field and proposes trends in the data available from the latest seasons. Index Terms-Neural networks applications, formula one racing, embedded deep neural networks, predictive analysis I. INTRODUCTIONFormula one racing has the world's most extensive viewing of all the circuit motorsport, with a combined viewership of 445 million in 2021 [1, 2]. Formula one cars are a marvel of engineering and have been considered among the fastestdesigned vehicles. Formula one, or simply F1, is sanctioned by Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA), which sets the rules and regulations for the races, including the car design, frequency of pitstops, and choice of tires. Multiple teams, including Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren, have participated in the world championship every year since its inaugural season in 1950, involving a series of Grand Prix [3]. Grand Prix is a race performed on closed road circuits of varying lengths and complexities across various parts of the world, including Monaco, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, Monza, and Silverstone. F1 racing dominates the betting sites where sportsbooks and fans are interested to know the prediction of the winner before the race day. The goal of a team in F1 racing is simple -be the first one to cross the chequered flag. The race result depends not only on the driver or the car's pace but also, on multiple real-time stochastic elements such as the timing and duration of pitstops, tire degradation, and weather conditions. Although the driver's skills and the car's Manuscript