Deepening or Diminishing Ethnic Divides? The Impact of Urban Migration in Kenya

Abstract

The impact of urban migration on ethnic politics is the subject of long-standing debate. "First-generation" modernization theories predict that urban migration should reduce ethnic identification and increase trust between groups. "Second-generation" modernization perspectives argue the opposite: Urban migration may amplify ethnic identification and reduce trust. We test these competing expectations with a three-wave panel survey following more than 8,000 Kenyans over a 15-year period, providing novel evidence on the impact of urban migration. Using individual fixed effects regressions, we show that urban migration leads to reductions in ethnic identification; ethnicity's importance to the individual diminishes after migrating. Yet urban migration also reduces trust between ethnic groups, and trust in people generally. Urban migrants become less attached to their ethnicity but more suspicious. The results advance the literature on urbanization and politics and have implications for the potential consequences of ongoing urbanization processes around the world.

Ethnofederalism and Ethnic Voting

“…Last but not least, our results add an important dimension to what we know about ethnic politics in Kenya (e.g., Burgess et al, 2015;Kramon and Posner, 2016;Kramon et al, 2021). Ethnic voting is extremely common in Kenya and conflict over which groups control the political center brought the country on the verge of civil war in 2007/2008 (e.g., Gibson and Long, 2009;Ferree et al, 2014).…”

Cash Crops, Print Technologies, and the Politicization of Ethnicity in Africa

“…The advent of multiparty elections with the end of the Cold War, in some cases, transformed ethnopolitical configurations (Posner 2005), but this often intensified rather than dampened ethnic salience (Eifert, Miguel, and Posner 2010;Oucho 2002) as well as autochthonous mobilization (Ceuppens and Geschiere 2005;Marshall-Fratani 2006). However, there is some evidence that urbanization and demographic change (leading to greater levels of ethnic diversity), as well as democratic institutions, are reducing ethnic favoritism (Burgess et al 2015;Ichino and Nathan 2013;Kramon et al 2021).…”

Rejecting Ethnic Pandering in Urban Africa: A Survey Experiment on Voter Preferences in Nairobi, Kenya

“…Current research in Africa has yet to settle the debate between the competing visions of urban politics offered in modernization theory. Robinson (2014) shows that ethnic identities are weaker relative to national identities in urban Africa, and Kramon et al (2021) demonstrate that migration to urban areas in Kenya leads to a decrease in the perceived importance of ethnicity. 1 Several contributions suggest that urban voters are less inclined to vote along ethnic lines (Conroy-Krutz 2009), hold more fluid electoral preferences (Harding and Michelitch 2019;Wahman and Boone 2018), and organize around class rather than ethnic interests (Resnick 2014).…”

“…Africa’s cities have become considerably more integrated in recent decades: inter-marriage is common (Bandyopadhyay and Green 2021; Crespin-Boucaud 2020), a growing share of mixed-ethnicity citizens trace their lineage to multiple communities (Dulani et al 2021), and social networks frequently extend across ethnic divisions. Moreover, parochial attachments are weaker in urban areas (Kramon et al 2021; Robinson 2014). In line with contact theory (Allport 1954), we propose that social integration in urban areas may temper ethnic preferences, leading voters—particularly longer-term residents and those whose social networks are more diverse—to disfavor narrow appeals to ethnic interests that promise to favor one group at the expense of others.…”

“…Robinson (2014) shows that urbanites are about 3 percentage points less likely to identify in ethnic terms across Africa. Kramon et al (2021) show that living in an urban area in Kenya for 7.5 years is associated with a reduction in the stated importance of ethnic or tribal origins from 2.86 to 2.75 on average, on a 3-point scale where 1 means “not very important,” 2 “somewhat important,” and 3 “very important.”…”