Defense planning in the fog of peace: the transatlantic currency conversion conundrum

Becker, Jordan; Bell, Robert

doi:10.1080/09662839.2020.1716337

Cited by 14 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 28 publications

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“…More recently, President Obama and his Secretary of Defense Robert Gates excoriated European “free-riding (Goldberg 2016)” and the “dim and dismal” future it portended (Gates 2011). But when US officials pointed to the operational implications of the US’s emerging focus on Asia, allies “simply accepted the risk that the capabilities the U.S. identified would not be available in the European theater (Becker and Bell 2020, 133).” While European allies had numerous incentives to increase defense spending in recent years that were unrelated to outside pressure (Lute 2022), NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg often touted President Trump’s role in pressuring allies, while at the same time shielding Trump from key strategic issues like defense and deterrence (Schuette 2021).…”

Section: The Logic Of Public Censure In Natomentioning

confidence: 99%

Transatlantic Shakedown: Presidential Shaming and NATO Burden Sharing

Becker

Kreps

Poast

et al. 2023

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Does “shaming” work in NATO? More precisely, does publicly using negative language criticizing allies’ defense spending improve burden-sharing, or is it counterproductive, leading to lower spending? We evaluate the effectiveness of public shaming language; specifically, whether it increases allies’ defense spending or whether other considerations like external threat, domestic budgets, economic growth, or unemployment rates are better predictors of contributions. Using an original dataset of presidential statements and NATO defense spending data disaggregated across the four categories tracked by the alliance, we conclude that negative language toward allies’ spending is at best ineffective and may even adversely affect burden-sharing in the long run. These findings have important implications for the political economy of alliances and both theories and policies on the use of rhetorical pressure to elicit compliance in asymmetric power relationships.

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Section: The Logic Of Public Censure In Natomentioning

confidence: 99%