Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems

Bates, Amanda E.; Pecl, Gretta T.; Frusher, SD; Hobday, Alistair J.; Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan; Sunday, Jennifer M.; Hill, Nicole; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Colwell, Robert K.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Slawinski, Dirk; Feng, Ming; Edgar, Graham J.; Radford, Ben; Thompson, Peter A.; Watson, Reg

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009

Cited by 243 publications

(259 citation statements)

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“…Factors such as high dispersal ability and large geographic ranges are hypothesized to influence the ability of a species to extend its range (O'Connor et al, 2012). Although some generalizations with regard to life-history and ecological traits are evident (Bates et al, 2014b), studies applying traitbased approaches to predict range expansions generally show low explanatory power (Angert et al, 2011;Pinsky et al, 2013). However, a study from south-east Australia identified species' traits common among range-shifting species, in particular swimming ability (thus dispersal potential), omnivory and initial range size (thus ecological generalization) .…”

Section: Ecological Responses Across Ocean Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Observations of changing abundance may be an early warning that large-scale shifts in distribution are about to occur, or that they are occurring (Bates et al, 2014b(Bates et al, , 2015Lenoir and Svenning, 2014), and indeed are often used to infer distribution shifts. For example, data spanning multiple decades from coastal localities off south-eastern South Africa (Lloyd et al, 2012), Rhode Island in north-west Pacific (Collie et al, 2008), the northern Gulf of Mexico (Fodrie et al, 2010), and south-east Australia (Last et al, 2011) all demonstrate increases in the abundance of warmerwater species and decreases in cooler-water species coincident with local warming temperatures leading authors to postulate that range shifts are occurring.…”

Section: Abundancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…At trailing edges however, observations of expansions (26 of 83 observations), contractions (28), or no change (29) were similar (Figure 2). Differences in consistency of observations among range edges may be explained by differing processes (e.g., colonization vs. extinction) and detectability (Bates et al, 2014b(Bates et al, , 2015.…”

Section: Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

et al. 2016

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Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species' responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species' responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

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Section: Ecological Responses Across Ocean Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Abundancementioning

confidence: 99%

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Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

et al. 2016

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“…However, in terms of a warming perspective, unexpected equatorward and shallower migrations have been observed [56,57]; thus, the complex mosaic of local velocity of SST (Figure 10c,d) is believed to represent a powerful tool for evaluating the variability in species distribution [9]. Recent studies have applied the velocity of SST to the expectation of species range shifts [12,13].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in Rate and Direction of Shifts between Phytoplankton Size Structure and Sea Surface Temperature

et al. 2017

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Species distributions are changing with various rates and directions in response to recent global warming. The velocity of sea surface temperature (SST) has been used to predict species migration and persistence as an expectation of how species track their thermal niches; however, several studies have found that evidence for species shifts has deviated from the velocity of SST. This study investigated whether estimation of the velocity of shifts in phytoplankton size structure using remote sensing data could contribute to better prediction of species shifts. A chlorophyll-a (Chla) size distribution (CSD) model was developed by quantifying the relationships between the size structure of the phytoplankton community and the spectral features of the phytoplankton absorption coefficient (a ph (λ)), based on the principal component analysis approach. Model validation demonstrated that the exponent of CSD (hereafter, CSD slope), which can describe the synoptic size structure of a phytoplankton community, was derived successfully with a relative root mean square error of 18.5%. The median velocity of CSD slope across the ocean was 485.2 km·decade −1 , broadly similar to Chla (531.5 km·decade −1 ). These values were twice the velocity of SST, and the directions of shifts in CSD slope and Chla were quite different from that of SST. Because Chla is generally covariant with the size structure of a phytoplankton community, we believe that spatiotemporal changes in Chla can explain the variations of phytoplankton size structure. Obvious differences in both rate and direction of shifts were found between the phytoplankton size structure and SST, implying that shifts of phytoplankton size structure could be a powerful tool for assessing the distributional shifts of marine species. Our results will contribute to generate global and regional maps of expected species shifts in response to environmental forcing.

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“…Colonization of new, more climatically-suitable, habitat is a key coping strategy used by organisms, and understanding this process is critical to guide conservation strategies (Gilman et al, 2010). Not surprisingly, species' range expansions are difficult to accurately predict (HilleRisLambers et al, 2013;Bates et al, 2014), since they require detailed knowledge of dispersal mechanisms and physiological tolerance of species to the receiving environment. Range expansion is also problematic to measure empirically since it requires longer-term detailed fish observations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Success of Range-Expanding Coral Reef Fish in Temperate Habitats Using Temperature-Abundance Relationships

et al. 2018

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An 18-year database of coral reef fish expatriation poleward in South East Australia was used to estimate persistence of coal reef fish recruits on temperate reefs. Surveys have identified over 150 coral reef fish species recruiting to temperate reefs at latitudes of 34 • S (Sydney) and 60 species to 37 • S (Merimbula) with 20 and 5 species respectively overwintering in at least 1 year over the study duration. We developed indices of vulnerability of key species to drops in water temperatures, by relating drops in abundances of species to temperature drops. Twenty species were ranked according to their temperature vulnerability. Overall, the families Chaetodontidae (butterflyfishes), Acanthuridae (surgeonfishes), Labridae (wrasses) and Pomacetnridae (damselfishes) had similar cold-water tolerance. However, there was considerable variability within families, for instance in the Pomacentridae, species from the genus Abudefduf appeared to have better cold-temperature tolerance than the other species. Predicted minimum overwintering temperature varied from 15.6 • C to 19.8 • C, with some species showing lower Tzero at Merimbula, the more poleward location. There was general concordance between a species' tolerance to cold-water and its tendency to occur as an overwinter but also notable exceptions. So while this work demonstrates the potential utility of tolerance to seasonal temperature drops as a means to predict range expansion capacity of vagrant species, the exceptional cases serve to highlight alternative factors. Specifically, tolerance to seasonal cooling of water is not the only important factor when predicting the range expansion capacity of a species. Factors affecting the general abundance of the vagrants, such as habitat suitability and competitor/predator environments will also be critical where overwinter survival becomes a lottery.

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Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems

Cited by 243 publications

References 123 publications

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Differences in Rate and Direction of Shifts between Phytoplankton Size Structure and Sea Surface Temperature

Predicting Success of Range-Expanding Coral Reef Fish in Temperate Habitats Using Temperature-Abundance Relationships

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