Defining Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability within the North American Monsoon

Abstract

This study provides an empirical description of intraseasonal rainfall variability within the North American monsoon (NAM) region. Applying particular definitions to historical daily rainfall observations, it demonstrates that distinct intraseasonal rainfall modes exist and that these modes differ considerably from the monsoon core region in northwest Sonora (SON), California, to its northward extension in southeast Arizona (AZ). To characterize intraseasonal rainfall variability (ISV), separate P-mode principal component (PC) analyses were performed for SON and AZ. The results indicate that in each area, much of the ISV in rainfall can be described by three orthogonal modes. The correlations between ISV modes and total seasonal rainfall reinforce the notion of differing behaviors between the monsoon's core and extension. For SON all three ISV modes exhibit significant correlation with seasonal rainfall, with the strongest relationship in evidence for the ISV mode, which is related to rainfall intensity. For AZ, total rainfall exhibits the strongest correlation with the ISV mode, which emphasizes season length and rainfall consistency. Examination of longer-period behavior in the ISV modes indicates that, for SON, there is a positive linear trend in intensity, but a countervailing trend toward a shorter monsoon season along with less consistent rainfall in the form of shorter wet spells. For AZ, the evidence for trend in the ISV modes is not nearly as compelling, though one of the modes appears to exhibit distinct multidecadal variability. This study also evaluates teleconnectivity between ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the NAM's intraseasonal rainfall variability. Results indicate that part of the intraseasonal rainfall variability in both SON and AZ is connected to ENSO while only SON exhibits a teleconnection with the long-period fluctuations of the PDO.

Estimating Trends and Return Periods of Daily Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones in the Core North American Monsoon

“…2). This also agrees with the results of [36], who found that while the intensity of summer precipitation in Sonora state increased significantly since 1977, in association with the +PDO phase, the monsoon season became shorter, resulting in a non-significant upward trend in precipitation [10] (Figs 2a-c). The linear trend of the percentage contribution of P95 associated with TCs was significantly increased (0.86% decade -1 , p<0.05) during the period 1961-2000 (Fig.…”

Correlations between sea‐surface temperatures and warm season streamflow in northwest Mexico

“…For instance, Englehart and Douglas (2006) find, for Sonora, a long-term trend towards a shorter monsoon season (i.e. later starts and earlier stops).…”

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

“…We completed two additional simulations over the North America Monsoon (NAM) region (23-40 • N, 121-100 • W) using 25-km grid spacing on both simulations with default and optimal parameters, respectively. The NAM represents a distinctly different climate regime compared to the SGP in the central US (Berbery, 2001;Englehart and Douglas, 2006). For example, convection in the semi-arid NAM region is associated with strong surface heating, with a dominant late afternoon precipitation maxima related to the buildup of CAPE during the day.…”