Defining the extent of suitable habitat for the endangered Maple-Leaf oak (Quercus acerifolia)

Subedi, Suresh C.; Ruston, Boone; Hogan, J. Aaron; Coggeshall, Mark V.

doi:10.21425/f5fbg58763

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…As recent SDM studies have successfully improved predictive accuracy by combining models generated from several algorithms (Hao et al 2020;Adhikari et al 2022Adhikari et al , 2023Subedi et al 2023), rather than a single algorithm in SDM, an ensemble modeling approach was used to develop habitat suitability models, combining multiple SDM algorithms. First, sampling bias and spatially autocorrelated occurrence data were addressed through spatial rarefaction or filtering (Kramer-Schadt et al 2013;Boria et al 2014;Aiello-Lammens et al 2015).…”

Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species (Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Subedi,

Drake,

Adhikari

et al. 2023

J. For. Res.

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Quercus arkansana (Arkansas oak) is at risk of becoming endangered, as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations. The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high, yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited. Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habitat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known locations of current distribution of Q. arkansana. We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q. arkansana is approximately 127,881 km2 across seven states (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida); approximately 9.5% is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas. Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disappear by 2050 due to climate change, resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky. The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas suggests that a species-specific action plan incorporating protected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conservation. Moreover, protection of Q. arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies, adaptive management strategies, and educational outreach among local people.

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Section: Species Distribution Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species (Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Subedi,

Drake,

Adhikari

et al. 2023

J. For. Res.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is crucial to select appropriate tree species and establish long-term ecological restoration plans for drought-prone and semi-arid regions by utilizing species distribution data and environmental information to generate niche-based models that explore and predict species’ response patterns to future climate change ( Zhang et al., 2020 ; Subedi et al., 2023 , 2024 ; Varol et al., 2022 ). The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model is a density estimation and species distribution model ( Phillips et al., 2006 ) that is one of the most effective and widely used methods for studying the impact of climate change on species habitat suitability ( Araújo et al., 2019 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

Huang,

Liu,

et al. 2024

Front. Plant Sci.

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IntroductionArid and semi-arid regions are climate-sensitive areas, which account for about 40% of the world’s land surface area. Future environment change will impact the environment of these area, resulting in a sharp expansion of arid and semi-arid regions. Cotoneaster multiflorus is a multi-functional tree species with extreme cold, drought and barren resistance, as well as ornamental and medicinal functions. It was found to be one of the most important tree species for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas. However, bioclimatic factors play an important role in the growth, development and distribution of plants. Therefore, exploring the response pattern and ecological adaptability of C. multiflorus to future climate change is important for the long-term ecological restoration of C. multiflorus in arid and semi-arid areas.MethodsIn this study, we predicted the potential distribution of C. multiflorus in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt 2.0 model, and discussed its adaptability and the major factors affecting its geographical distribution.ResultsThe major factors that explained the geographical distribution of C. multiflorus were Annual precipitation (Bio12), Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). However, C. multiflorus could thrive in environments where Annual precipitation (Bio12) >150 mm, Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) > -42.5°C, and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) > -20°C, showcasing its characteristics of cold and drought tolerance. Under different future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. multiflorus ranged from 411.199×104 km² to 470.191×104 km², which was 0.8~6.14 percentage points higher than the current total suitable area. Additionally, it would further shift towards higher latitude.DiscussionThe MaxEnt 2.0 model predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. multiflorus in the context of future climate change, and identified its ecological adaptability and the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. This study provides an important theoretical basis for natural vegetation restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.

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Defining the extent of suitable habitat for the endangered Maple-Leaf oak (Quercus acerifolia)

Cited by 2 publications

References 30 publications

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species (Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species (Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

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