There is a difference between the conditions in which one can felicitously use a 'must'claim like (1-a) and those in which one can use the corresponding claim without the 'must', as in (1-b): (1) a. It must be raining out. b. It is raining out. I thank two anonymous referees for this journal, and my editor, Paul Portner, for very helpful comments. Thanks to Joshua Knobe and Jonathan Phillips for invaluable help running and analyzing the experiment reported here, and to Justin Khoo and MIT for financial support for the experiment. This paper expands on Mandelkern (2017b), and I also thank my referees and audience at Sinn und Bedeutung 21; audiences at MIT,