Deforestation Predicts the Number of Threatened Birds in Insular Southeast Asia

Brooks, Thomas M.; Pimm, Stuart L.; Collar, Nigel

doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.95493.x

Cited by 216 publications

(180 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Comparably good matches of the numbers of species extinct and predicted to become extinct (plus those presently threatened with extinction) hold for the species-rich insular Southeast Asia (22) and the Atlantic coast forests of Brazil (23).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 89%

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions

Pimm

Raven

Peterson

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

281

213

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Unqualified, the statement that Ϸ1.3% of the Ϸ10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 yields an estimate of Ϸ26 extinctions per million species per year (or 26 E͞MSY). This is higher than the benchmark rate of Ϸ1 E͞MSY before human impacts, but is a serious underestimate. First, Polynesian expansion across the Pacific also exterminated many species well before European explorations. Second, three factors increase the rate: (i) The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely. Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are Ϸ100 E͞MSY. In the last decades, the rate is <50 E͞MSY, but would be 150 E͞MSY were it not for conservation efforts. Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands. We predict a 21st century rate of Ϸ1,000 E͞MSY. Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats. If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E͞MSY by the century's end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species. Birds are poor models for predicting extinction rates for other taxa. Human actions threaten higher fractions of other well known taxa than they do birds. Moreover, people take special efforts to protect birds.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 89%

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions

Pimm

Raven

Peterson

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

281

213

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“…Such a test is impossible on a global scale, but can be attempted for regional-level estimates of extinction. Brooks et al (1997) found a good correspondence between the number of endemic birds predicted to go extinct on individual south-east Asian islands using SAR calculations and information on the extent of deforestation, and a second estimate of extinction risk (from the Red Data Book listings of endangered species on each island). Unfortunately, the logic of this test is somewhat circular because the degree of habitat loss (the variable entered into the SAR calculation) is likely to be a key factor determining whether species on each island are listed as threatened.…”

Section: Species-area Curves and Extinction Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 83%

Climate change, species–area curves and the extinction crisis

Lewis

2005

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

109

100

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an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

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“…Although quantitative habitat loss rates are lacking for all 220 islands, previous studies using Pimm_s species loss function (11) have shown that habitat loss is a remarkably accurate predictor of past extinction rates (11,12) and current extinction threat (13) on 31 island archipelagoes (12)(13)(14). In fact, whenever accurate habitat loss data are available, they are invariably so highly correlated with observed extinction rates that they confound any attempt to interpret extinctions in the light of species invasions alone.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%