2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.27.20238618
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Delay-robust Estimation of the Reproduction Number and Comparative Evaluation on Generated Synthetic Data

Abstract: The reproduction number is an indicator of the evolution of an epidemic. Consequently, accurate estimators for this number are essential for decision making in politics. Many estimators use filtered data as input to compensate for fluctuations of reported cases. However, for daily-based estimations, this filtering leads to delays. Some approaches use small window sizes for filtering to overcome this issue. This, in turn, leads to an increased periodic behavior of estimators. To overcome these issues, in the pr… Show more

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“…For example, the reproductive number Rt, a key parameter in epidemiology, is used to measure the transmission potential of a disease. It represents the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of infection in a population where everyone is susceptible (Cori et al, 2013;Heidrich et al, 2020;Obadia et al, 2012;Thompson et al, 2019). The estimation of Rt can be significantly impacted due to the quality of the data sets used.…”
Section: Processing Available Reliable Informationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example, the reproductive number Rt, a key parameter in epidemiology, is used to measure the transmission potential of a disease. It represents the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of infection in a population where everyone is susceptible (Cori et al, 2013;Heidrich et al, 2020;Obadia et al, 2012;Thompson et al, 2019). The estimation of Rt can be significantly impacted due to the quality of the data sets used.…”
Section: Processing Available Reliable Informationmentioning
confidence: 99%