Delayed Finalization of Sodium Targets in the United States May Cost Over 250 000 Lives by 2031

Abstract

Background: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed 2- and 10-year voluntary sodium-reduction targets for >150 packaged- and prepared-food categories in 2016 and finalized the short-term targets in 2021. Methods: We modeled the health benefits of implementing the newly finalized sodium targets, and the net health losses because of the 4.3-year delay in finalizing the sodium targets in different compliance scenarios in adults aged ≥30, using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015 to 2016 cycle. The health impact was estimated by multiplying the projected reduction in population sodium intake by the annual health benefits resulting from every 1000-mg reduction in daily sodium intake. Results: Under certain assumptions, the FDA’s finalization of the short-term targets in Oct 2021 and possible finalization of the long-term targets by April 2024 is projected to save up to 445 979 (95% CI, 17 349–787 352) lives in the coming 10 years. The net number of unnecessary deaths because of FDA’s delay is projected to be as high as 264 644 (95% CI, 10 295–467 215) according to our prediction. Conclusions: These findings highlight the enormous health costs due to the FDA’s delay in finalizing the sodium-reduction targets, and the great potential health benefits of industry compliance with the FDA’s finalization of its short- and long-term targets in the coming 10 years.

Estimated Impact of Achieving the Australian National Sodium Reduction Targets on Blood Pressure, Chronic Kidney Disease Burden and Healthcare Costs: A Modelling Study

“…Government inaction or delays in enforcing strong policies can have substantial health and economic costs. A recent analysis of the United States Food and Drug Administration’s 4.3 year delay (2016 to 2021) in finalizing their short-term sodium reduction targets was estimated to cost over 250,000 lives over 10 years [ 44 ]. Federal and State Governments in Australia must therefore work together to enforce robust and timely policies to avoid such losses.…”

Mechanism-based strategies to prevent salt sensitivity and salt-induced hypertension

“…More recently, the same proponents of food reformulation claimed that 5 years after publication of the U.K. salt reduction targets, population salt intake decreased by 10% [ 51 ]. However, this claim is also open to question [ 37 ] because it is based on a selective analysis of salt intake data from a single year (2011) after publication of the food salt targets.…”

Will Food and Drug Administration Guidance to Reduce the Salt Content of Processed Foods Reduce Salt Intake and Save Lives?

“…Will Food and Drug Administration Guidance to Reduce the Salt Content of Processed Foods Reduce Salt Intake and Save Lives? Theodore W. Kurtz , Michal Pravenec, Stephen E. DiCarlo I n this issue of Hypertension, Song et al 1 report results from modeling studies showing that thousands of premature deaths might have been averted if the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had acted sooner in finalizing guidance on reducing the amount of salt added to processed, packaged, and prepared foods. In October 2021, FDA officially issued guidance on food salt reduction targets for industry.…”

“…2 According to the modeling studies of Song et al, as many as 265 000 lives might have been saved if the FDA had finalized their guidance for industry in 2016 when the salt reduction targets were originally drafted. 1 A major strength of this important article is the inclusion of modeling studies predicting that thousands of deaths might have been averted by earlier FDA guidance even if industry only partially complied with the salt reduction targets. As in the United States, many countries worldwide are interested in the use of food salt reduction programs to stem the pandemic of hypertension and cardiovascular disease.…”