Delayed signatures of underground nuclear explosions

Carrigan, Charles R.; Sun, Yunwei; Hunter, Steven L.; Ruddle, D.; Wagoner, J. L.; Myers, Katherine B. L.; Emer, D.F.; Drellack, S.L.; Chipman, Veraun

doi:10.1038/srep23032

Cited by 37 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The value of k f weighted by the fracture volume, or bulk k , ranges from 3.07 × 10 −12 m 2 in the undamaged zones to 2.14 × 10 −11 m 2 for the 1 R c CCS. The permeability values for the background, 2 R c CCS, and 2 R c surface damage zone given in Table 1 are in agreement with the single bulk k value of 4.13 × 10 −12 m 2 at U20az obtained by Carrigan et al (2016) based on inversion of barometric pressure data from 2013. The current model estimates that the permeability of the 1 R c CCS and 1 R c surface damage zone are an order of magnitude higher than the corresponding outer zones, but the calibration is relatively insensitive to the permeability of these zones.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…Gas migration models have been developed to predict surface arrival times of gas following an UNE (Carrigan et al, 1996), and these have generally relied on simplified geometry, such as single‐fracture, parallel‐plate conceptual models, to estimate the effect of barometric pumping on gas migration (Sun and Carrigan, 2014). Carrigan et al (2016) introduced two‐dimensional models with simplified damage zonation representation including dual‐permeability models, which include early‐time UNE‐related physics, such as thermal convection and phase changes due to the heat of detonation. Jordan et al (2015) and Mourzenko et al (2014) introduced further damage‐zone complexity into the models with heterogeneous and anisotropic fracturing in radially symmetric two‐dimensional models.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Importance of Barometric Pumping for Subsurface Gas Transport Near an Underground Nuclear Test Site

Bourret

Kwicklis

Miller

et al. 2019

Vadose Zone Journal

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Core Ideas Gas transport modeling can estimate ground surface breakthrough after an underground nuclear explosion. Comparison tracer‐injection experimental and model results reveals parameter sensitivity. Barometric pumping may explain gas breakthrough following an underground nuclear explosion. Amplitude and period of barometric pressure signal are key in controlling breakthrough. An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) generates and distributes radioactive gases that can be transported to the ground surface though preexisting and explosion‐induced fractures over timescales of hours to months. If detected, the presence of short‐lived radionuclides in gas is evidence of a recent UNE. Numerical modeling can provide estimates of surface arrival times that can help inform gas monitoring strategies at suspected foreign test sites. Efforts are underway at historic US UNE sites to better understand subsurface gas‐transport processes following a UNE by geologic characterization of the near‐field damage structures, field‐scale tracer experiments, and subsurface air pressure monitoring. The development of numerical models using historical and experimental datasets from former UNE sites can improve predictions by testing conceptual models, highlighting key processes, and constraining parameter ranges. The models developed in this study represent the U20az site at the Nevada National Security Site where the Barnwell device was expended in December 1989. A two‐phase (water and air), dual‐permeability flow and transport model of the U20az site was built to investigate gas transport processes under recent experimental conditions and following the Barnwell nuclear event. Results indicate that the model can explain both the lack of arrival of radioactive gas tracers in a 2013 field experiment as well as the observed arrival of radioactive gases following the 1989 Barnwell event using barometric pressure records from the respective periods, even when additional advective processes associated with the Barnwell detonation are ignored. The results demonstrate that the character of the barometric records may be a key factor in explaining the differences in transport behavior.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Importance of Barometric Pumping for Subsurface Gas Transport Near an Underground Nuclear Test Site

Bourret

Kwicklis

Miller

et al. 2019

Vadose Zone Journal

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“…In the situation where a suspected leak must be found relatively quickly, another approach might be used that encompasses both soil gas concentration(s) and flux measurements [39]. The speed of vertical gas migration in faulted and fractured terrain was also investigated using injected and produced tracers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faults as Windows to Monitor Gas Seepage: Application to CO2 Sequestration and CO2-EOR

Klusman

2018

Geosciences

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Monitoring of potential gas seepage for CO 2 sequestration and CO 2 -EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) in geologic storage will involve geophysical and geochemical measurements of parameters at depth and at, or near the surface. The appropriate methods for MVA (Monitoring, Verification, Accounting) are needed for both cost and technical effectiveness. This work provides an overview of some of the geochemical methods that have been demonstrated to be effective for an existing CO 2 -EOR (Rangely, CA, USA) and a proposed project at Teapot Dome, WY, USA. Carbon dioxide and CH 4 fluxes and shallow soil gas concentrations were measured, followed by nested completions of 10-m deep holes to obtain concentration gradients. The focus at Teapot Dome was the evaluation of faults as pathways for gas seepage in an under-pressured reservoir system. The measurements were supplemented by stable carbon and oxygen isotopic measurements, carbon-14, and limited use of inert gases. The work clearly demonstrates the superiority of CH 4 over measurements of CO 2 in early detection and quantification of gas seepage. Stable carbon isotopes, carbon-14, and inert gas measurements add to the verification of the deep source. A preliminary accounting at Rangely confirms the importance of CH 4 measurements in the MVA application.

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“…Sun, Y., and C. R. Carrigan (2016), Thermally driven advection for radioxenon transport from an underground nuclear explosion, Geophys. Res.…”

Section: Citationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermally driven advection for radioxenon transport from an underground nuclear explosion

Sun

Carrigan

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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Barometric pumping is a ubiquitous process resulting in migration of gases in the subsurface that has been studied as the primary mechanism for noble gas transport from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). However, at early times following a UNE, advection driven by explosion residual heat is relevant to noble gas transport. A rigorous measure is needed for demonstrating how, when, and where advection is important. In this paper three physical processes of uncertain magnitude (oscillatory advection, matrix diffusion, and thermally driven advection) are parameterized by using boundary conditions, system properties, and source term strength. Sobol' sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate the importance of all physical processes influencing the xenon signals. This study indicates that thermally driven advection plays a more important role in producing xenon signals than oscillatory advection and matrix diffusion at early times following a UNE, and xenon isotopic ratios are observed to have both time and spatial dependence.

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Delayed signatures of underground nuclear explosions

Cited by 37 publications

References 18 publications

Evaluating the Importance of Barometric Pumping for Subsurface Gas Transport Near an Underground Nuclear Test Site

Evaluating the Importance of Barometric Pumping for Subsurface Gas Transport Near an Underground Nuclear Test Site

Faults as Windows to Monitor Gas Seepage: Application to CO2 Sequestration and CO2-EOR

Thermally driven advection for radioxenon transport from an underground nuclear explosion

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