Delineating the Area for Sustainable Cultivation of Morinda officinalis Based on the MaxEnt Model

Abstract

Morinda officinalis, a traditional medicinal plant in southern China, has a well-established cultivation history in Zhaoqing and Yunfu City of the Guangdong Province, China, contributing significantly to the local economy. Inadequate cultivation practices of Morinda officinalis may heighten the risk of landslide occurrences due to its specific growth and harvesting characteristics. This issue presents a challenge to the sustainable advancement of agriculture and forestry in the area, underscoring the necessity for scholarly intervention to address and devise effective remedies. This research utilized the MaxEnt model to assess landslide susceptibility and habitat suitability for Morinda officinalis, aiming to delineate appropriate cultivation zones amidst changing climatic conditions. The findings indicate that the model demonstrated a high level of accuracy, achieving combined AUC values of 0.802 for landslide susceptibility and 0.861 for habitat suitability evaluations, meeting the criteria for classification as “highly accurate”. Regions such as the Yun’an District, Luoding City, and the Xinxing District in Yunfu City were identified as having a low landslide risk and being highly conducive to Morinda officinalis cultivation under current climate conditions. Future projections indicate an anticipated expansion of the species’ distribution area between 2021 and 2040 under different climate scenarios, with subsequent variations. Spatial analysis unveiled a notable trend in the research area, indicating greater suitability for cultivation in the southern region compared to the northern region. This suggests that Yunfu City holds promise for facilitating the cultivation of Morinda officinalis more effectively than Zhaoqing City. This research offers a practical approach for promoting the sustainable growth of the regional Morinda officinalis industry, while also serving as a valuable resource for other economic crops encountering comparable developmental obstacles.