Delphi Forecasts of Land Use: Transportation Interactions

Cavalli-Sforza, Violetta; Ortolano, Leonard

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-947x(1984)110:3(324)

Cited by 59 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The development of the technique can be dated back to the early 1950s and a study conducted by the US Air Force-sponsored Rand Corporation (Linstone and Turoff 1975). In order to obtain high quality results from Delphi analysis, some authors have recommended a sample size of between 5 and 15 experts (Kim et al 2013;Novakowski and Wellar 2008;Cavalli-Sforza and Ortolano 1984) The Delphi method has been applied standalone or in combination with other techniques in solving a variety of problems in the literature: Joshi et al (2011) employed the Delphi technique in identifying, synthesizing and prioritising key performance factors of a refrigeration system; Kim et al (2013) used the Delphi technique to identify objective evaluation criteria for selecting electronic waste to be recycled.…”

Section: Delphi Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid MCDM based methodology for selecting the optimum maintenance strategy for ship machinery systems

2015

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The key to achieving optimum ship system reliability and safety is to have a sound maintenance management system in place for mitigating or eliminating equipment/component failures. Maintenance has three key elements; risk assessment, maintenance strategy selection and the process of determining the optimal interval for the maintenance task. The optimisation of these three main elements of maintenance is what constitute a sound maintenance management system. One of the challenges that marine maintenance practitioners are faced with is the problem of maintenance selection for each equipment item of the ship machinery system. The decision making process involves utilising different conflicting decision criteria in selecting the optimum maintenance strategy from among multiple maintenance alternatives. In tackling such decision making problems the application of a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method is appropriate. Hence in this paper two hybrid MCDM methods; Delphi-AHP and Delphi-AHP-PROMETHEE, are presented for the selection of appropriate maintenance strategies for ship machinery systems and other related ship systems. A case study of a ship machinery system maintenance strategy selection problem is used to demonstrate the suitability of the proposed methods.

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Section: Delphi Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid MCDM based methodology for selecting the optimum maintenance strategy for ship machinery systems

2015

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“…The Delphi technique was used to elicit the SMEs' (Cavalli-Sforza and Ortolano 1984;Phillips 2000). Furthermore, the SME survey involved three consecutive questionnaires (i.e., Questionnaire 1 to identify criteria-filled by 14 SMEs, Questionnaire 2 to pairwise compare criteria and alternatives-filled by 10 SMEs, and Questionnaire 3 to evaluate the methodology-filled by 10 SMEs).…”

Section: Identification Of Smesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of MCDM methods output coherence in oil and gas portfolio prioritization

Qaradaghi

Deason

2017

J Petrol Explor Prod Technol

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This research paper aims at developing a triplex multi-criteria decision model to achieve an optimum allocation of resources to a portfolio of oilfields based on a number of criteria that pertain to the oilfields' technical and contextual characteristics. It also offers an approach for validating the prioritization results generated by the methods used through a two-dimensional test that compares the internal and external prioritization stability of three multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods against a conventional Intuitive approach. The MCDM methods used include Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enriched Evaluation (PROMETHEE), and Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The internal and external consistency testing results are outlined in nine possible scenarios through which a conclusion is derived confirming the competitive advantage of MCDM methods.

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“…However, considering the arguments that a Delphi survey should not be viewed as an opinion poll, as well as the broad view expressed by authors in this field, it seems that a panel between 7 and 20 might be appropriate, at least for the first round of the questionnaire [15]. Other authors confirm that 7 to 12 respondents are sufficient [16] [17] [18]. A total of thirteen experienced participants were identified who are currently employed as project managers for consulting engineering companies in South Africa.…”

Section: Sample Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Project Management Methodology for the Consulting Engineering Industry

Labuschagne

Steyn

2011

The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering

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This paper describes the characteristics of a project management methodology that is currently used in the consulting engineering industry in South Africa. Based on currentlyused methodologies in other industries, and on a Delphi survey conducted in several consulting engineering companies, guidelines for a project management methodology for the consulting engineering industry are proposed. Respondents of the survey were in full agreement on typical project life cycle phases. They were also in agreement that a lack of project management knowledge and maturity prevents the successful implementation of such a methodology in a company. Lastly, the respondents agree that, by applying a project management methodology in the South African consulting engineering industry, more consistent results regarding time, cost, and quality could be achieved. OPSOMMINGHierdie artikel beskryf die karakteristieke van ŉ projekbestuurmetodologie wat tans gebruik word deur die raadgewende ingenieursbedryf in Suid-Afrika. Gebaseer op metodologieë wat tans in ander bedrywe gebruik word, en op ŉ Delphi ondersoek in verskeie raadgewende ingenieursmaatskappye, word riglyne voorgestel vir die raadgewende ingenieursbedryf. Respondente het eenstemmigheid oor tipiese fases in die projeklewensiklus. Hulle het ook saamgestem dat ŉ gebrek aan projekbestuurkennis en -volwassenheid die suksesvolle implementering van so ŉ metodologie voorkom. Ten slotte het die respondente saamgestem dat, deur die toepassing van ŉ projekbestuurmetodologie in die Suid-Afrikaanse raadgewende ingenieursbedryf, meer konsekwente resultate ten opsigte van tyd, koste, en gehalte behaal kan word.

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Delphi Forecasts of Land Use: Transportation Interactions

Cited by 59 publications

References 4 publications

Hybrid MCDM based methodology for selecting the optimum maintenance strategy for ship machinery systems

Hybrid MCDM based methodology for selecting the optimum maintenance strategy for ship machinery systems

Analysis of MCDM methods output coherence in oil and gas portfolio prioritization

Development of a Project Management Methodology for the Consulting Engineering Industry

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