Delusions of success: Costs and demand of high-speed rail in Italy and Spain

Beria, Paolo; Grimaldi, Raffaele; Albalate, Daniel; Bel, Germà

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.03.011

Cited by 49 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…V ehicles−Km, Sector length, and T oll data were obtained from AISCAT (Associazione Italiana Società Concessionarie Autostrade e Trafori, the concessionaires' association). HSR Opening and HSR Competition data are based on , Beria et al (2018), and taken from RFI and NTV websites, and the operators' financial statements. Data for V ehicles, i.e., the number of light vehicles and population at municipality level, were obtained from ACI (Automobile Club d'Italia) and ISTAT (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica), respectively, while municipalities located within a 15-km arc distance from motorway exits were identified from the Automap website.…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy

Borsati

Albalate

2020

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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Institute of Applied Economics (IREA) in Barcelona was founded in 2005, as a research institute in applied economics. Three consolidated research groups make up the institute: AQR, RISK and GiM, and a large number of members are involved in the Institute. IREA focuses on four priority lines of investigation: (i) the quantitative study of regional and urban economic activity and analysis of regional and local economic policies, (ii) study of public economic activity in markets, particularly in the fields of empirical evaluation of privatization, the regulation and competition in the markets of public services using state of industrial economy, (iii) risk analysis in finance and insurance, and (iv) the development of micro and macro econometrics applied for the analysis of economic activity, particularly for quantitative evaluation of public policies. IREA Working Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. For that reason, IREA Working Papers may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of the author. A revised version may be available directly from the author. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IREA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.

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Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy

Borsati

Albalate

2020

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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“…While building the future projections through Bass diffusion model of high-speed railways to passenger amounts (Figure 1), passenger-km ( Figure 2) and railway network length (Figure 3), there were certain difficulties in the process. Both passenger data showed S-curve based growth, but the railway network completion was possibly more fluctuating around the fitted curve (even having some linear features) or then having different values of overall size (final total size of the network), which was assumed in this research work (however, it is not rare for the Bass curves to have pauses in their users and population of this country, and therefore, in the light of network invested the usage has been seen as less successful [14]. HSR network is never alone in providing transportation services, and the sole passenger transportation mode -in Japan the success of HSR could partly be explained by the lack of domestic airline competition [15].…”

Section: Chinese High-speed Railway Growth Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…It should be noted that HSR efficiency evaluation is not only about operational efficiency or service issues. For example, in Italy the usage and implementation of HSR have been rather successful, but the construction was really costly [14]. However, in Spain the HSR network was built as too large due to thinking about the potential countries do not invest or expand services in the following decade)?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chinese High-speed Railway: Efficiency Comparison and the Future

Hilmola

2019

PROMET

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High-speed railway (HSR) network building was initiated in China in the early 2000s, and full-scale construction began several years later as a larger use phase started in 2008. Thereafter, the expansion speed has been impressive. Network investment could be considered as a success, if evaluating the amount of high-speed railway usage already during the expansion phase. The diffusion models built in this research show that expansion in the network and growth of the passengers will continue at least until the following decade. The performance is evaluated in terms of DEA efficiency model. It is shown that efficiency started from very low levels, but it has been increasing together with the expansion of HSR network. Currently, the efficiency is near the level of the leading European High-speed (HS) countries (Germany and France). However, it is projected with linear model and by Bass diffusion models that the efficiency will reach Japanese and South Korean standards in the next decade. A somewhat larger network length with smaller relative growth of passengers, but with a higher growth of passenger-km seems to be able to reach even the frontier efficiency.

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“…Preteseille et al proposed a fatigue test method for HSR structures [18]. Beria et al discussed the delusions of success in the Italian and Spanish HSR projects [19]. Chen et al investigated the influence of HSR projects on the economy and environment in China [20].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First of all, government policy can directly affect international contractors' ability to carry out their operational strategies and receive the expected profits. Second, the government's project desirability has a strong relationship with the relative importance of construction projects to the host countries [19]. International construction projects with high governmental desirability would benefit from more government support (e.g., fewer restrictions, favorable policies, convenient approval procedures, sufficient national budget, and guarantee), while international construction projects with low governmental desirability would suffer from more discriminatory treatment [7,58].…”

Section: Government Attitudesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Political Risk Paths in International High-Speed Railway Projects: The Case of Chinese International Contractors

2019

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Contracting in international high-speed railway (HSR) projects is a risky business. The success of these projects and the sustainable development of international contractors are inseparable from effective risk management. However, limited research has been conducted to investigate the political risk involved in international HSR projects. As HSR development is becoming a more major part of the global construction market, this paper investigates the political risk factors specific to the projects and the relationships among the factors. Through a literature review and a pilot interview conducted with five Chinese professionals, 26 political risk factors were proposed. A questionnaire was then administered to 112 experts from both academia and industry to assess the significance of the factors. By applying partial least-squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technology, the 26 factors were clustered into eight groups, and 10 significant risk paths were identified. Specifically, “government attitudes” can directly influence the “investment profile” and “social support” can directly influence “government attitudes,” while “government instability,” “economic climate,” “financing and costs,” “external interference,” and “contractors’ operations” can indirectly influence investment profile by directly influencing “government attitudes” or “social support.” The findings of this study can assist international contractors with gaining a clear understanding of the political risk involved in international HSR projects, which will lead to more effective political risk management as well as better business decisions. Furthermore, this paper will contribute to the global body of knowledge in the area of political risk management for large-scale international projects.

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Delusions of success: Costs and demand of high-speed rail in Italy and Spain

Cited by 49 publications

References 43 publications

On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy

On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy

Chinese High-speed Railway: Efficiency Comparison and the Future

Investigating Political Risk Paths in International High-Speed Railway Projects: The Case of Chinese International Contractors

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