Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030: Simulation results with a dynamic model

A model-based analysis of the implications of shale gas developments for the European gas market

“…The use of market models to simulate (future) gas market developments is not new, but an application to the potentially high-impact development of large-scale shale gas production has not been investigated thus far. Examples of other applications are an assessment of future costs of gas suppliers [1], an assessment of future gas infrastructure investment requirements [2], an assessment of the impact of gas supply interruptions [3], an assessment of the future need for seasonal gas storage [4], and an assessment of the impact of market power [5,6]. The thus far lacking of an application to the case of shale gas prospects may be explained by the scarce availability of commercially recoverable shale gas estimates and production cost data.…”

“…This relates to the issue of flexibility in gas production. Whereas the demand for gas has a distinct pattern over time, for example throughout the year, gas production facilities are generally only capable of accommodating this pattern in a very limited manner [4]. Whereas the core analysis in this paper assumes that shale gas production is very flexible, a sensitivity analysis is performed that assumes the contrary.…”

Optimize China’s Seasonal Natural Gas Storage: A Welfare-Economics Approach

“…Lise [15] used GASTALE model to simulate interactions among demand, supply, and investments in European natural gas market. J. de Joode et al [16] used extended GASTALE model to simulate seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe. Wang [17] considered price fluctuation and seasonal effect to build a UGS valuation model.…”

Multiplicity of equilibria in conjectural variations models of natural gas markets

“…The most prominent examples are the dynamic GASTALE model by Lise & Hobbs [32], and the World Gas Model (WGM) by Egging et al [9]: both models assume international gas traders to exert market power over consumers, and compete perfectly for infrastructure services such as transmission or storage capacity. The dynamic GASTALE model [33,30] and the WGM [51,18,10,11,17,8,21,37] were expanded successively and used for various case studies.…”