Demografischer Wandel und Krankheitshäufigkeiten

Abstract

Demographic change and its impact on the German healthcare system is a subject of great debate. The purpose of this paper is to make projections on disease rates based on the 11th coordinated demographic prediction and population-based data which take into consideration demographic developments. The German population will decrease by approximately 16% until 2050, while at the same time the number of persons aged over 65 years will increase by 38% and the number of individuals aged over 80 years will increase by 156%. Baby boomers cause a vertical wave in the population pyramid. The population pyramid itself will lead to an overproportional increase in the number of elderly persons. Assuming that disease probability stays the same, the incidence of diseases due to advanced age will rise dramatically. Especially diseases, such as community-acquired pneumonia, age-related macula degeneration, dementia, fracture of the femur neck, and myocardial infarction, will by then occur more often. By 2050, some of the most frequent diseases will be hypertension and arthrosis. Thus, the continuous cutting of resources seems rather short minded. It is highly recommended to reconsider the long-run effects before setting a health policy course. A proper social discourse about primary care and prioritization appears to be urgently needed.

Projections of cancer incidence and cancer‐related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030

“…In the past, a couple of projections based on demographic changes estimating the future cancer burden in Germany have been published 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. However, most of these projections were not based on past trend changes in cancer incidence and mortality 5, 7, 8.…”

“…However, most of these projections were not based on past trend changes in cancer incidence and mortality 5, 7, 8. Haberland et al.…”

“…Rahib et al. projected an unexpected and alarming rise of thyroid, liver, and pancreatic cancer, the latter becoming the second most frequent cause of cancer‐related deaths around 2021. International publications of similar projections for Germany are rare 4, 5, 6, 7, 8; therefore, such projections could add substantial weight to future global health initiatives. Accordingly, we set out to adapt and improve the projection model established by Rahib and colleagues to calculate the future cancer burden in Germany.…”

Comparative analysis of delivery of primary eye care in three European countries

“…Interestingly, the report from de Pouvourville et al includes also prevalence rates by age groups showing that all five conditions are heavily age related: all prevalence rates increase with age. 83 An approach similar to de Pouvourville et al [2003] is used by Peters et al [2010] to estimate the prevalence of glaucoma and AMD among the German population. According to their results, the number of glaucoma sufferers will rise from 1.1 million in 2007 to just under 1.6 million by 2050.…”

“…According to their results, the number of glaucoma sufferers will rise from 1.1 million in 2007 to just under 1.6 million by 2050. The number of people affected by AMD will even double within this period -a period that is also characterized by a decrease in the total population [Peters et al 2010]. Although they do not analyse diabetic retinopathy, Peters et al [2010] include diabetes in their projections, according to which the number of diabetes sufferers is going to rise from 4.…”