Demographic Accounts and the Study of Social Change, With Applications to the Post-World War II United States

Land, Kenneth C.; McMillen, Marilyn M.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-392550-3.50012-6

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…It is important to note that equation (2) follows by definition from a double-entry accounting approach to population stocks and flows (for a derivation, see, e.g., Land and McMillen, 1981). From a physical science point of view, it is a specific instance of the law of conservation of mass.…”

Section: The Limits Of Identities and The Need For Parameterizationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

Land

Schneider

1987

Climatic Change

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This article identifies and analyzes several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences. These include: the limits of identities or universal laws as a basis for forecasts; the corresponding need for simplifying parametric representations of one or more of the variables that enter into identities; various sources of uncertainty about parameterizations; intrinsic limitations on predictability or forecasting accuracy in large-scale systems; the need for sensitivity analyses of model responses to changes in exogenous variables and/or parametric structures; problems of model linkage; and the social (organizational and political) context of forecasts. Suggestions for future lines of inquiry are made in each case. Several of these are such that they can benefit from a sharing of experience and expertise across disciplinary lines.Forecasting is an estimation or calculation of future events or developments, derived from a model, simple or complex, heuristic or analytic. Forecasting, to put it in Other words, pertains to the formation of expectations about future states or processes of specific historical entities (cf., Duncan, 1969;Henschel, 1976;Schuessler, 1968). Social scientists perhaps are best known and/or notorious for economic and demographic forecasts, whereas natural scientists typically are associated with and/or blamed for weather, climate, earthquake, and ecological forecasts. But each produces forecasts of many other social and natural phenomena, and there are interstitial areas, such as energy, transportation, and technological forecasting to which both have contributed.Forecasts can be made for single variables or multi-dimensional distributions at a specific time, or for time series of such variables or distributions. They can involve elaborate methodological formalism based on universal laws or identities; can be based on simple extrapolation of past performance or human judgment; or can involve some combination of lawful behavior and extrapolation and judgment--so-called "contextual laws." The "future" forecasted can be distant or near. The scope of forecasts can encompass the world's physical/social/economic systems or a single local phenomenon.The uses of forecasts range from their explanatory value in a scientific sense to their fulfullment of a statutory requirement for practical policy uses.Many of the dangers and pitfalls to which forecasts are subject are discussed in this work. These include intrinsic limits on their accuracy; the sources and impacts of errors in forecasts; the dangers of spurious accuracy and of a false sense of precision; the danger that certain forecasts, when taken seriously, can create their own self-fulfilling prophecy; and the potential conflicts of interest among forecasters and/or users of forecasts.Despite the presence of these and other problems in forecasting, there are, of course, many potential benefits. Not least of these is the possibility that forecasts of important variables can be correct! Moreover, eve...

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Section: The Limits Of Identities and The Need For Parameterizationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

Land

Schneider

1987

Climatic Change

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“…4 See, for example, Bureau of the Census (1980). We employ a system of demographic accounts for the United States constructed by Land and McMillen (1981). Demographic accounting is discussed by Stone (1981).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment in Education

Jorgenson

Fraumeni

1989

Educational Researcher

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The purpose of this paper is to present new measures of the benefits from education. These measures are based on the incremental effect on human wealth of participation in formal schooling. We define human wealth as the sum of lifetime labor incomes for all individuals in the U.S. population. These incomes include the value of time spent working and the value of nonmarket labor activities, which are defined to include parenting and the enjoyment of leisure. Our estimates of lifetime labor incomes are drawn from an extensive data base on income from work. We have enlarged this data base to incorporate the value of nonmarket activities. We compare our estimates of investment in education and human wealth with estimates based on the expenditures of educational institutions. We find that these expenditures are very much smaller than the benefits of education.

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“…Recent developments in this tradition have extended the accounting framework to encompass multiregional and multistate demographic models producing projections by regions, labor force status, marital status, and other characteristics (Land and McMillen, 1981;Rogers, 1980). Within the demographic accounting tradition, much has been made of the distinction between projections and forecasts.…”

Section: Demographic Accounting Traditionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A survey of census bureau population projection methods

Long

McMillen

1987

Climatic Change

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"Population projections methods of the U.S. Census Bureau draw upon several different traditions of forecasting: demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory. This paper reviews each of the forecasting traditions in population projections, describes the U.S. Census Bureau's current methods for national and state population projections, and proposes new hybrid approaches such as demographic-time series methods for national fertility projections and economic-demographic methods for state migration projections. Throughout the article, possible parallels with forecasting in other disciplines are noted."

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Demographic Accounts and the Study of Social Change, With Applications to the Post-World War II United States

Cited by 10 publications

References 42 publications

Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

Investment in Education

A survey of census bureau population projection methods

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