Demographic ageing and the polarization of regions—an exploratory space–time analysis

Abstract

Demographic ageing is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. Contributing to this debate, we explore the spatio-temporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the worker age structure and innovation output for German regions by conducting an Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA). Besides commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow investigating joint dynamics of the spatial distributions. Overall, we find that innovation hubs tend to be located in areas with high skill concentrations, but also seem to coincide with favourable demographic age structures. We show that these concentrations are persistent over time due to clusterwise path dependence and spatial contagion forces. The spatio-temporal patterns speak in favour of a demographic polarization process of German regions where the post-reunification East-West divide is increasingly turning into a rural-urban divide.

Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain

“…If one considers the existence of spatial spillovers and age‐selective migration, the gap between regions in terms of innovation, the aged population and human capital structure becomes even wider. Using regional data for Germany, Gregory and Patuelly (, p. 17) find a growing age demographic divide between rural and urban areas that corresponds to the innovative/less idea‐driven regions divide: those regions with an old (and homogeneous) population structure have a low probability of reversing the trend ‘due to strong neighboring forces and clusterwise path dependence’.…”

Ageing by feet? Regional migration, neighbourhood choice and local demographic change in German cities

“…Existing studies agree that in Germany ageing so far has coincided with an increase in regional disparities due to co-agglomeration of high-skilled and younger individuals (Buch, Hamann, & Niebuhr, 2010;Gregory & Patuelli, 2015;Piontek & Wyrwich, 2017). Similarly, Glaeser, Saiz, Burtless and Strange (2004: 85) find with respect to city growth in the United States between 1980 and 2000: "High skilled areas have been getting more populous, better paid, and more expensive.…”

Struggles of Older Workers at the Labour Market

“…These are the conclusions introduced by the study authored by German researchers, which explored the connection between innovative production, fields with the high concentration of skills and competences, and the favourable demographic and age structure of population (Gregory and Patuelli, 2015).…”