Demographic change in Germany

Abstract

German population trends show continued demographic decline and ageing. This can be explained by changes in fertility, mortality and immigration rates. Low fertility leads to smaller numbers of infants every year, which, compounded by low mortality and, consequently, larger numbers of elderly, shifts the population ratio. Incoming migrants used to counterbalance this ratio but this is no longer sufficient to replace youth not born in Germany. This article explores direct and indirect policy solutions to the demographic changes on the state, societal and regional levels.Demography is one of the few sciences that are focused mainly on the future. The longterm nature of demographic processes allows demographers to predict population trends with a rather satisfying degree of likelihood. It is obvious that demographic change will determine the future social and economic situation of ageing societies. Demographic change in Germany is comprised of two trends: long-term population decline and demographic ageing. Demographic change is often reduced to ageing, because population decline is still playing a minor role. 'Ageing' has two meanings, however, that are sometimes confused: the prolongation of life expectancy (individual ageing) and the ageing of a population (demographic ageing). Demographic change seems to be an inevitable side effect of the socio-economic change and modernisation of a society. But, while ever-increasing life expectancy is proof of the remarkable progress of a civilisation, demographic ageing leads to complex problems (especially in combination with population decline). This worldwide trend [6] confronts a society with manifold challenges.At the end of 2007 Germany had a population of 82.2 million, of whom 42.0 million were females. Of these, 65.6 million lived in West Germany; in East Germany, including Berlin, there were 16.6 million inhabitants. Foreigners made up 7.3 million persons

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