Demographic Component of National Security

Abstract

The change in the values of modern society has changed the emphasis in the definition of the main factors characterizing national security. The aging of the population, increasing costs of medicine and pension payments, increasing economic burden on the working-age population give reasons to consider the demographic component as the main one in the system of national security. The article deals with the problem of determining those demographic factors that have the greatest impact on national security. The aim of the study is to quantify the influence of individual demographic factors on the national security indices. It compares the main demographic indicators of the Russian Federation and developed countries; uses data for developed countries to determine the boundary values of the main demographic indicators; constructs regression dependencies that determine the dynamics of demographic indicators for the Russian Federation; determines the generalized index of the demographic component of national security of the Russian Federation; calculates elasticity coefficients to determine the impact of individual demographic indicators; develops recommendations to improve the demographic composition of the Russian Federation. It has been established that previously unrecorded parameters of demographic security indicators (the share of the elderly population in the total population and the demographic burden of the elderly) are important in the assessment of national security. For the Russian Federation, all indicators are in the critical zone (below the minimum threshold value).