Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Hernández‐Pacheco, Raisa; Plard, Floriane; Grayson, Kristine L.; Steiner, U.

doi:10.1002/ece3.6988

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Taken together, these ideas support the use of this and similarly structured IPMs for investigating biphasic amphibian population dynamics, as well as amphibian population dynamics more broadly (Hernández‐Pacheco et al, 2021). The model presented in this contribution provides a general structure within which individual functions can be altered for investigations of ecologically similar species.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis

Messerman

Clause

Gray

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision‐making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present a stochastic size‐ and stage‐structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (CTS) (Ambystoma californiense). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The PVA indicated that long‐term viability is possible with surprisingly high (20%–50%) terrestrial mortality but simultaneously identified likely minimum terrestrial buffer requirements of 600–1000 m while accounting for numerous parameter uncertainties through the Bayesian framework. These analyses underscore the value of stochastic and Bayesian IPMs for understanding both climate‐dependent taxa and those with cryptic life histories (e.g., biphasic amphibians) in service of ecological discovery and biodiversity conservation. In addition to providing guidance for CTS recovery, the contributed IPM and PVA supply a framework for applying these tools to investigations of ecologically similar species.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis

Messerman

Clause

Gray

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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“…Some studies suggest that changes in body size may follow Bergmann’s rule with increasing temperatures leading to reduced body sizes (Daufresne et al 2009 ; Yom-Tov et al 2010 ) as an adaptation to warmer environments because the larger surface area to volume ratio leads to heat loss (Bergmann 1847 ). On the other hand, the large individual body size is often linked to high individual fitness, specifically to increased fecundity (Chamaillé-Jammes et al 2006 ; Ozgul et al 2010 ; Hernández‐Pacheco et al 2021 ). Shrinking body size in response to climate change could therefore be maladaptive and thus threaten populations of species where large body size is connected to higher individual fitness and thus ultimately population persistence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term field study reveals that warmer summers lead to larger and longer-lived females only in northern populations of Natterer’s bats

Stapelfeldt

Tress²,

Koch³

et al. 2023

Oecologia

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Animals often respond to climate change with changes in morphology, e.g., shrinking body size with increasing temperatures, as expected by Bergmann’s rule. Because small body size can have fitness costs for individuals, this trend could threaten populations. Recent studies, however, show that morphological responses to climate change and the resulting fitness consequences cannot be generalized even among related species. In this long-term study, we investigate the interaction between ambient temperature, body size and survival probability in a large number of individually marked wild adult female Natterer’s bats (Myotis nattereri). We compare populations from two geographical regions in Germany with a different climate. In a sliding window analysis, we found larger body sizes in adult females that were raised in warmer summers only in the northern population, but not in the southern population that experienced an overall warmer climate. With a capture-mark-recapture approach, we showed that larger individuals had higher survival rates, demonstrating that weather conditions in early life could have long-lasting fitness effects. The different responses in body size to warmer temperatures in the two regions highlight that fitness-relevant morphological responses to climate change have to be viewed on a regional scale and may affect local populations differently.

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“…Over long periods of evolutionary time, body size generally increases within a given lineage (Heim et al, 2015; Hone et al, 2005; Raia et al, 2012) so recent observations of size declines in several taxa (Daufresne et al, 2009; Ozgul et al, 2009) have been cause for concern. Such size declines can have profound and long‐lasting effects across multiple scales of biological organization, from individuals to ecosystems (Alberti et al, 2017; Hernández‐Pacheco et al, 2021; Woodward et al, 2005), and much work has focused on understanding the patterns of size declines (Gardner et al, 2011; Sheridan & Bickford, 2011), as well as the driving mechanisms behind the observed trends (Gardner et al, 2019; Sheridan et al, 2018). Climate change has been suggested as the likely driver of recently observed size changes, but several studies suggest that land use change may also contribute to recently observed size changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Body size responses to the combined effects of climate and land use changes within an urban framework

Martin

Sheridan

2022

Global Change Biology

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Alterations in body size can have profound impacts on an organism's life history and ecology with long-lasting effects that span multiple biological scales. Animal body size is influenced by environmental drivers, including climate change and land use change, the two largest current threats to biodiversity. Climate warming has led to smaller body sizes of many species due to impacts on growth (i.e., Bergmann's rule and temperature-size rule). Conversely, urbanization, which serves as a model for investigating the effects of land use changes, has largely been demonstrated to cause size increases, but few studies have examined the combined influences of climate and land use changes on organism size. We present here the background theory on how each of these factors is expected to influence body size, summarize existing evidence of how size has recently been impacted by climate and land use changes, and make several recommendations to guide future research uniting these areas of focus. Given the rapid pace of climate change and urbanization, understanding the combined effects of climate and land use changes on body size is imperative for biodiversity preservation.

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Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Abstract: Worldwide assessments predict that 15%-37% of terrestrial species will be at risk of extinction by 2050 (Thomas et al., 2004;Tilman et al., 2017). Several mechanisms of extinction predict associated changes in body size due to climate change (Baudron et al., 2014;

Cited by 11 publications

References 66 publications

Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis

Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis

Long-term field study reveals that warmer summers lead to larger and longer-lived females only in northern populations of Natterer’s bats

Body size responses to the combined effects of climate and land use changes within an urban framework

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