Demographic responses of boreal caribou to cumulative disturbances highlight elasticity of range-specific tolerance thresholds

Rudolph, Tyler D.; Drapeau, Pierre; Imbeau, Louis; Brodeur, Vincent; Légaré, Sonia; St‐Laurent, Martin‐Hugues

doi:10.1007/s10531-017-1292-1

Cited by 43 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…, Rudolph et al. ). As our results illustrate, however, the predator, the mechanism for altered predator–prey dynamics, and the implications for persistence can vary considerably across the broad distribution of caribou.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling multispecies predator–prey dynamics: predicting the outcomes of conservation actions for woodland caribou

2019

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Woodland caribou is a Threatened or Endangered subspecies across much of Canada. In many cases, these caribou are declining because of human‐mediated predation in the form of apparent competition. Provincial and federal agencies have employed a number of conservation actions to arrest the decline, but insufficient time and limited replication make it difficult to test the efficacy of those activities. We built a three‐species population model that served as a tool to integrate current knowledge, explore uncertainties, and assess activities focused on the recovery of caribou. We applied the model to interconnected populations of caribou, moose, and wolves at two locations in Canada (Chinchaga [British Columbia], Charlevoix [Québec]) and explored the efficacy of conservation actions unique to each population: predator control, restoration of linear features, reduction of habitat for moose, supplementation, maternal pens, and predator exclosures. Results confirmed that caribou at these two locations faced different recovery challenges, dictated by specific population dynamics and threats. Wolf predation, enhanced by seismic lines and resource roads, was responsible for the decline of the simulated Chinchaga population. The most cost‐effective recovery actions for that population were long‐term lethal wolf control (λ1–50 = 1.014, $25,665/caribou), a large‐scale predator exclosure (λ1–50 = 1.015, $170,767/caribou), and the aggressive restoration of linear features (λ1–50 = 1.002, $531,675/caribou). In contrast, simulations suggested that calf predation by black bears, a fixed source of mortality in the model, limited the growth of the Charlevoix population. Assuming high survival of adult caribou and poor recruitment of juveniles, a maternal pen was the most effective action for the recovery of those caribou (λ1–50 = 1.004, $148,473/caribou). Short‐term population supplementation provided only a temporary increase in abundance (λ1–50 = 0.994, $62,143/caribou). The model was limited by ecological and data uncertainties, but served as an effective platform for representing and testing our understanding of the complex interspecific interactions that underlie the recovery of woodland caribou.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling multispecies predator–prey dynamics: predicting the outcomes of conservation actions for woodland caribou

2019

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“…, Rudolph et al. ). They stress the importance of linking the historical natural disturbances in landscapes with the evolutionary setting of behavioral plasticity of boreal caribou to understand current habitat selection patterns toward contemporary timber harvesting.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This situation has led to an increased likelihood of predation affecting adult and juvenile demographic parameters (Environment Canada , Rudolph et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exposure to historical burn rates shapes the response of boreal caribou to timber harvesting

et al. 2019

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Studying the response of wildlife to anthropogenic disturbances in light of their evolutionary history may help explain their capacity to adapt to novel ecological conditions. In the North American boreal forest, wildfire has been the main natural disturbance driving ecosystem dynamics for thousands of years. Boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) is a threatened ungulate for which widespread decline has been associated with the rapid expansion of timber harvesting across its range. Although caribou may not be adapted to this new type of disturbance, cutovers share many similarities with wildfires by producing large landscapes of whole‐stand removal associated with an increased predation risk for caribou. We hypothesized that caribou with more evolutionary experience of fire disturbance should better perceive the cues associated with disturbances and adjust their behavior toward human disturbance accordingly. Given the extensive distribution of caribou populations in the boreal forest, we assessed how their historical exposure to wildfires could explain their behavioral response toward both burned and cutover areas. Our results indicate that caribou from regions with high historical burn rates displayed a consistent avoidance of recent burns (<5 yr old), and that this behavior translated in a similar avoidance of recent cutover, providing support to the cue similarity hypothesis. On the contrary, caribou with less evolutionary experience of wildfires were more likely to select recently disturbed (<5 yr‐old and 6–20 yr‐old) habitats. In the context that timber harvesting and its associated road network has been linked to increased mortality in boreal caribou populations, we discuss how this naïve habitat use of clearcuts can be exacerbated by historical disturbance regimes and become maladaptive for this endangered species.

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“…Grassland vegetation types and early-seral forests provide less cover for caribou than mature forests, and there is evidence from southern forests that white-tailed deer frequently forage in grasslands near forest edges (Beier and McCullough 1990). High mortality is the limiting factor for many populations of boreal caribou (McLoughlin et al 2003, DeMars and Boutin 2017, Rudolph et al 2017, and increasing predation and disease risk is the primary factor in our projected decrease in overall habitat-quality. High mortality is the limiting factor for many populations of boreal caribou (McLoughlin et al 2003, DeMars and Boutin 2017, Rudolph et al 2017, and increasing predation and disease risk is the primary factor in our projected decrease in overall habitat-quality.…”

Section: Shifts In Modeled Landscape Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou

et al. 2018

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2018. Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou. Ecosphere 9(10):Abstract. Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are currently listed as threatened in Canada, with populations in the province of Alberta expected to decline as much as 50 percent over the next 8-15 yr. We assessed the future of caribou habitat across a region of northeast Alberta using a model of habitat-quality and projections of future climate from three general circulation models. We used mapped climatic and topo-edaphic properties to project future upland vegetation cover and a fire simulation model to project the frequency and extent of wildfires. Based on those projections, we quantified the future habitat of caribou according to estimates of nutritional resources and predation risk derived from vegetation cover type and stand age. Grassland vegetation covered up to half of the study area by the 2080s, expanding from <1% in the present and contributing to a significant contraction in mixedwood and coniferous forests. This change in vegetation would increase the risk of predation and disease, as habitat becomes more suitable for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, consequently, gray wolves (Canis lupus). Borne out, these changes would severely compromise the long-term persistence of caribou in the boreal forest of Alberta.

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Demographic responses of boreal caribou to cumulative disturbances highlight elasticity of range-specific tolerance thresholds

Cited by 43 publications

References 41 publications

Modeling multispecies predator–prey dynamics: predicting the outcomes of conservation actions for woodland caribou

Modeling multispecies predator–prey dynamics: predicting the outcomes of conservation actions for woodland caribou

Exposure to historical burn rates shapes the response of boreal caribou to timber harvesting

Potential impacts of climate change on the habitat of boreal woodland caribou

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