Demographic Transition in Iran: Changes and Challenges

Hosseini-Chavoshi, Meimanat; Shavazi, Mohammad Abbasi

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-27881-5_7

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Shortly after the Islamic revolution of 1979, the family planning program was undermined by the new government, and early marriage and large family formation were promoted as basic Islamic values [38,39]. As a result of these changes and because of the underlying social, cultural, and political circumstances, fertility increased to around seven children per woman by 1986 [40]. The eight-year (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988) war between Iran and Iraq gave further impetus to pronatalist population policies because a large population was considered advantageous for the nation.…”

Section: Fertility Transition and The Emergence Of Below Replacement Fertility In Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

The gap between desired and expected fertility among women in Iran: A case study of Tehran city

2021

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The 2016 Iranian Census reveals that 14 of the country’s 31 provinces have sub-replacement fertility. The province of Tehran, where a woman on average gives birth to 1.5 children during her reproductive period, has the lowest fertility in Iran. However, the ‘two-child’ norm prevails in the country and even a woman of young reproductive age still values having at least two children on average. In other words, there exists a gap between a woman’s actual and desired fertility. This paper examines the demographic and socio-economic factors influencing the gap between actual and desired fertility in Tehran city based on a sample survey of 400 married women aged 15–49 years, conducted in 2015. The findings of the study reveal that the women of Tehran would be able to meet their fertility desires of two or more children if they were able to achieve their intended number of children they stated in the survey. However, should these women face any socio-economic constraint, they would be very likely to restrain their fertility desires and have fewer additional children than they initially intended, and thus continue with the sub-replacement fertility as being observed in Iran today.

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Section: Fertility Transition and The Emergence Of Below Replacement Fertility In Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

The gap between desired and expected fertility among women in Iran: A case study of Tehran city

2021

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“…Turning to fertility, we see that the transition to low levels has proceeded remarkably rapidly in some of the main Muslim countries, as shown in Figure 1. The most spectacular case is that of Iran, which experienced one of the most rapid fertility declines ever recorded (Abbasi-Shavazi et al 2009;Hosseini-Chavoshi and Abbasi-Shavazi 2012). Indeed, efforts to reduce fertility have been so successful in Iran that the country has recently shifted its population policy from being anti-natalist to being pro-natalist (McDonald et al 2015;Hosseini-Chavoshi et al 2016).…”

Section: The Fertility Transition In Muslim-majority Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries

Abassi-Shavazi¹,

Jones²

2019

Populationyearbook

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Muslim countries have experienced unprecedented demographic and social transitions in recent decades. The population dynamics in most of these countries have led to the emergence of a young age structure. High-fertility countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan have the highest proportions of children in the population; while countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh, where fertility is approaching replacement level, have relatively high proportions of youth (aged 15-29) in the population. In Iran, fertility is below replacement level. Education, as an indicator of human capital, has also been improving in all Muslim countries, albeit with considerable variation. These dynamics are creating opportunities and challenges related to the economy, wealth distribution, health, political governance, and socio-economic structures. National development policies should emphasise human development to enable countries to take advantage of these emerging population trends, and to ensure that sustainable development is achieved at all levels. But given the cultural and socio-economic diversity among Islamic countries, context-specific analysis is needed to provide us with a deeper understanding of these population issues, as well as of the pathways to achieving population policy objectives.

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“…It is projected that the share of people aged 65 + in the total population of Iran will increase from just 4% in the year 2000 to over 25%, according to the UN low variant projection, by 2050 (3). The demographic transition process coupled with very major changes in the governance, economy, cultural, and socio-economic context has had considerable consequences for many aspects of Iranian society (4), including changes in the composition and functions of the family (5). 'Family' is conceptualized by Iranian o cials as comprising those individuals who are related through parental (vertical) or marital (vertical or lateral) relationships, including members living in the same household and those living elsewhere (6).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Family Factors in Provision and Perception of Social Support for Older People in Iran: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Tajvar

Grundy

Fletcher

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Iran has experienced a very fast fertility transition. The process of demographic transition, coupled with modernization, has had considerable consequences for the structure and function of families. There is rising concern in Iran about a potential decline in family care and support for older people as a result of these changes. The main aim of this study was to provide a benchmark by examining current associations between family factors and older people’s social support, both perceived and received. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a random sample of 644 people aged 60 + years resident in Tehran stratified by socioeconomic status of area. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to examine the hypotheses. Results The analyses showed that most of the family factors measured, including family size, living arrangements, and amount of contact with family members were associated with older people’s receipt of instrumental social support, as expected. Living arrangements and quality of relationships with family members were associated with older people’s perceptions of social support. Conclusion Implications of these findings for older people currently living in Iran are considered. These findings may also provide important insights into the implications of demographic and associated family changes for older people in the future.

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Demographic Transition in Iran: Changes and Challenges

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

The gap between desired and expected fertility among women in Iran: A case study of Tehran city

The gap between desired and expected fertility among women in Iran: A case study of Tehran city

Population dynamics and human capital in Muslim countries

Role of Family Factors in Provision and Perception of Social Support for Older People in Iran: A Cross-Sectional Survey

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