Demographic transition pattern in a small country

Momota, Akira; Futagami, Koichi

doi:10.1016/s0165-1765(99)00257-8

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 4 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is shown that the optimal savings response to declining fertility entails either a decrease or an increase in per capita savings depending on the assumptions made on the elasticity of labor supply and the generational turnover effect, thereby generalizing the results of Elmendorf and Sheiner (2000). Second, we study a proportionate fall in the fertility and death rates so as 6 Momota and Futagami (2000), however, study demographic transition in a small open economy using endogenous fertility theory (see Becker and Barro (1988)). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

Heijdra

Ligthart

2004

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises.JEL codes: E12, E63, L16.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

Heijdra

Ligthart

2004

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…7 In other words: the family determines the flow of births per unit time, rather than the overall stock of children during its lifetime, as is done in overlapping generations models. This approach is well acknowledged in economics nowadays(Jones (1999),Momota and Futagami (2000)). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Population, Unemployment and Economic Growth Cycles: A Further Explanatory Perspective

Fanati¹,

Manfredi²

2003

Metroeconomica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper we investigate the dynamic interaction between economic growth, unemployment, income distribution and population growth. The reference framework combines rational behaviour of agents with endogenous fertility and unemployment, while profits are the determinant of the accumulation of firms. In particular the supply of labour is determined by the micro-founded fertility choices of individuals. We first demonstrate, consistently with the empirical evidence, the existence of a positive income growth trend with sustained oscillations, therefore providing an alternative explanation of the relation between growth and cycle. Moreover interesting results are given on the relation between unemployment and growth. So far the literature has traditionally shown a negative relation between unemployment and growth (with the exception of the positive relation arising in a Schumpeter 'creative' disruption context). In contrast, we find a twofold effect of unemployment (via its effects on population) on economic growth: this can be both positive or negative depending on the relative level of the cost of childrearing of employed and unemployed persons, and on the level of unemployment benefits. This allows us to argue that an increase in unemployment benefit-as has occurred in recent years in many countries such as France and Spain-could lead to wide demo-economic fluctuations and to a positive effect of unemployment on economic growth.

show abstract

“…The possibilities for an Asian catch up with the west in terms of health and demography where enormous in the late 1940s, may be driven by external factors [3]. In the half century since then, Asia has exploited the catch-up potential with such enthusiasm that it has produced one of the fastest and most dramatic transitions ever seen [18].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One possibility has already been suggested: in the 1940s, Asia escaped from four or five decades of relative isolation, ushering in an era of health technology transfer and diffusion of new public health programs and techniques [6]. Another possibility is that increased agriculture productivity and trade in food both raised nutrition sufficiently to lower infant mortality dramatically over less than a decade, and did so everywhere in Asia [18]. Perhaps, but it seem unlikely given that magnitude and timing of that mortality decline was so similar everywhere in Asia, regardless of level of development and productivity performance in agriculture [13].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where Is Nepal in the Demographic Transition within the Wider Context of the Nutrition Transition?

Subedi¹,

Simkhada²,

Teijlingen³

2016

JSS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Historically, the process of nutrition transition begins with the shifts in demographic transition, moving away from high to low mortality, high to low fertility, high percentage of young population to high proportion of elderly population, high to low population growth rate; and short to long life expectancy at birth. The objective is to identify where Nepal is in demographic transition and whether demographic transition is considered as one of the proximate covariates of nutrition transition. Nepal's position in the demographic transition has been identified by using Popkin's framework which is scaled from Pattern I to Pattern V. The time series trends indicated that new patterns of demographic transition have been observed during 1995-2010, which is similar to the pattern IV of the nutrition transition as described by Popkin. Before 1970, the death rates were fluctuating around 30 to 50 deaths per thousand populations. The birth rate per thousand populations was more than 44, which was really high. Both fertility and mortality appear to start declining from 1970. During 1995-2010, birth rate declined from 38 to 24 per thousand populations. The time series trends indicated that new patterns of demographic transition have been observed during 1990-2010, which is similar to the transition between Pattern III and IV of the nutrition transition. Nepal is a country with faster declined in mortality followed by fertility decline, increasing life expectancy above 60 years, decreasing age-structure of below 15 years of population, increasing trends of urban population and beginning of large scale international migration. It may be concluded from above evidences that Nepal is across the new pattern of transition after 1990s in the demographic transition including the increasing risk of chronic diseases of elderly people related to excess consumption of fat, sugar and process foods.

show abstract

Demographic transition pattern in a small country

Cited by 10 publications

References 4 publications

The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

Population, Unemployment and Economic Growth Cycles: A Further Explanatory Perspective

Where Is Nepal in the Demographic Transition within the Wider Context of the Nutrition Transition?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About