Few long-term demographic studies have been conducted on freshwater turtles of South America, despite the need for this type of inquiry to investigate natural variation and strengthen conservation efforts for these species. In this study, we examined the variation in demography of the Chocoan River Turtle (Rhinoclemmys nasuta) based on a population from an island locality in the Colombian Pacific region between 2005 and 2017. We calculated survival, recapture, and transition probabilities, and the effects of stream substrate and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) on these variables using a multi-state model. We found differences in survival probabilities between ENSO phases, likely as a consequence of an increase in flood events. In addition, we found support for survival being greater in muddy streams than rocky streams, possibly because it is easier to escape or hide in mud substrates. Recapture probabilities varied by life stages; differences in the probability of recapture between size classes were associated with the high fidelity to territories by adults. The present increases in frequency and severity of El Niño and La Niña may exacerbate the consequences of climatic regimes on natural populations of turtles by increasing the mortality caused by drastic phenomena such as floods.Diversity 2019, 11, 97 2 of 12 scenarios [18][19][20]. The slow life history of turtles makes it necessary for long-term demographic research to generate information relevant to their conservation [21][22][23]. Long-term studies have been relatively common in the north temperate zone, including data of up to three decades' duration on threatened species [24][25][26]. For South America, this kind of long-term research is rare; only the research of Martins and Souza on Hydromedusa maximiliani has included data collected for longer than a decade [27].With 27 species of terrestrial and freshwater turtles, Colombia is considered the seventh most species-rich country in the world, and third at the level of South America behind Brazil and Ecuador [28]. Despite this great diversity, turtles are far from being one of the best-studied animal groups in Colombia; many aspects of their basic biology remain unknown, and long-term research is almost nonexistent or just beginning to be published [29,30]. Among the freshwater turtles recorded in Colombia, the Chocoan River Turtle, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae), is found only in Colombia and Ecuador [31], and its conservation status is categorized as near-threatened (NT) globally [3], NT in Colombia [32], and endangered (E) in Ecuador [33]. As a consequence of the threatened status of this species, we began studying an island population of R. nasuta in 2005 on Isla Palma, Bahía Málaga, in the central Pacific coastal region of the Department of Valle del Cauca in Colombia [31,34].Using information recorded on R. nasuta during the sampling efforts conducted between 2005 and 2017 on Isla Palma, this research has the goal of evaluating the long-term variation in su...