Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change

Patz, Jonathan A.; Martens, W. J. M.; Focks, Dana A.; Jetten, Theo H.

doi:10.2307/3434316

Cited by 78 publications

(97 citation statements)

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“…A pesar de los diversos hallazgos sobre la asociación entre la transmisión del dengue y la precipitación, y de que en otros estudios no se ha observado tal relación (incluso se ha descrito como una relación no estacionaria y probablemente espuria) (37) Las demostraciones de la fuerte asociación entre la incidencia de dengue y los factores climáticos, han permitido la construcción de diversos modelos (15,(44)(45)(46). En particular, considerando las condiciones climáticas locales para un período de 11 años, en el presente estudio se desarrolló un modelo que captó los principales cambios en la tendencia en la incidencia de dengue en Medellín por efecto de la precipitación.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Modelización del efecto de la variabilidad climática local sobre la transmisión de dengue en Medellín (Colombia) mediante análisis de series temporales

et al. 2012

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Introducción. El dengue es una enfermedad de transmisión vectorial de gran impacto en la salud pública. La transmisión del dengue es afectada por factores entomológicos, socioculturales y económicos. Además, la variabilidad climática juega un importante papel en la dinámica de transmisión. Un amplio consenso científico ha indicado que la fuerte asociación entre la enfermedad y las variables climáticas podría ser empleada para desarrollar modelos que expliquen la incidencia de la enfermedad. Objetivo. Desarrollar un modelo que permita comprender la dinámica de transmisión del dengue en Medellín y predecir incrementos en la incidencia de la enfermedad. Materiales y métodos. Se empleó la incidencia de dengue como variable dependiente y como variables independientes, los factores climáticos (temperatura máxima, media y mínima, humedad relativa y precipitación) registrados a escala semanal. Se utilizó el programa Expert Modeler para desarrollar un modelo que explique mejor el comportamiento de la enfermedad. Mediante modelos ARIMA, se seleccionaron las variables climáticas que tuvieron una relación significativa con la variable dependiente. Resultados. El 34 % de la variabilidad observada se explicó por el modelo. La precipitación fue la variable climática que mostró una asociación estadísticamente significativa con la incidencia del dengue, pero con un rezago de 20 semanas. Conclusiones. La transmisión del dengue en Medellín se vio afectada por la variabilidad climática, en particular, por la precipitación. La fuerte asociación entre el dengue y la precipitación permitió construir un modelo que ayuda a comprender la dinámica de transmisión, información que será de gran utilidad para el desarrollo de adecuadas y oportunas estrategias de control.Palabras clave: dengue, clima, salud pública, epidemiología, predicción, precipitación atmosférica. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.7705/biomedica.v33i0.1444 Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means temporary series analysisIntroduction: Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. Objective: To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. Materials and methods: The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through A...

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Section: Discussionunclassified

Modelización del efecto de la variabilidad climática local sobre la transmisión de dengue en Medellín (Colombia) mediante análisis de series temporales

et al. 2012

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“…Because climate has a well-documented role in the maintenance of vectors and pathogens in nature, some studies have predicted that the present warming phase of the Earth will result in the redistribution of many vector-borne diseases (Reeves, Hardy et al 1994;Patz, Epstein et al 1996). For instance, warming temperatures have been predicted to both enhance transmission intensity and extend the distribution of diseases such a malaria and dengue (Martens, Niessen et al 1995;Lindsay and Martens 1998;Patz, Martens et al 1998;Hales, de Wet et al 2002;Tanser, Sharp et al 2003). In particular, climate change may open up previously uninhabitable territory for arthropod vectors as well as increase reproductive and biting rates, and shorten the pathogen incubation period (Shope 1991;Patz, Epstein et al 1996).…”

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confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

2005

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An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climatebased logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and produce forecasts of vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (p<0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080's. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from southern United States, and movement into the central United States. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tick-borne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.

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confidence: 99%

“…The effect of the expected increase in temperature on the A. aegypti mosquito is of particular concern with regard to the transmission of dengue (11)(12)(13). It is expected that with increased temperatures, smaller mosquitoes, which feed more frequently, will be produced; the geographic range of the mosquitoes will expand; and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus will be shortened (11,13).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, changes in environmental temperatures in the direction consistent with global warming trends may be expected to exacerbate the emergence or resurgence of a number of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue (8,10,11). The effect of the expected increase in temperature on the A. aegypti mosquito is of particular concern with regard to the transmission of dengue (11)(12)(13). It is expected that with increased temperatures, smaller mosquitoes, which feed more frequently, will be produced; the geographic range of the mosquitoes will expand; and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus will be shortened (11,13).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Impact of environmental temperatures on resistance to organophosphate insecticides in Aedes aegypti from Trinidad

Polson¹,

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et al. 2012

Rev Panam Salud Publica

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Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change

Cited by 78 publications

References 23 publications

Modelización del efecto de la variabilidad climática local sobre la transmisión de dengue en Medellín (Colombia) mediante análisis de series temporales

Modelización del efecto de la variabilidad climática local sobre la transmisión de dengue en Medellín (Colombia) mediante análisis de series temporales

Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

Impact of environmental temperatures on resistance to organophosphate insecticides in Aedes aegypti from Trinidad

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