Dengue in a changing climate

Ebi, Kristie L.; Nealon, Joshua

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2016.07.026

Cited by 420 publications

(282 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…We inferred that it was probably due to the climate that year, because climate significantly influences viruses, mosquitoes and hosts. A large number of studies on the effect of climate on dengue morbidity have been completed in China and abroad Cheng et al, 2016;Ebi and Nealon, 2016;Quam et al, 2016). These studies indicated a preferred temperature range for DENV reproduction from 18.0 to 33.2 °C.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular epidemiology demonstrates that imported and local strains circulated during the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China

Pan

et al. 2017

Virol. Sin.

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The dengue virus (DENV) is a vital global public health issue. The 2014 dengue epidemic inGuangzhou, China, caused approximately 40,000 cases of infection and five deaths. We carried out a comprehensive investigation aimed at identifying the transmission sources in this dengue epidemic. To analyze the phylogenetics of the 2014 dengue strains, the envelope (E) gene sequences from 17 viral strains isolated from 168 dengue patient serum samples were sequenced and a phylogenetic tree was reconstructed. All 17 strains were serotype I strains, including 8 genotype I and 9 genotype V strains. Additionally, 6 genotype I strains that were probably introduced to China from Thailand before 2009 were widely transmitted in the 2013 and 2014 epidemics, and they continued to circulate until 2015, with one affinis strain being found in Singapore. The other 2 genotype I strains were introduced from the Malaya Peninsula in 2014. The transmission source of the 9 genotype V strains was from Malaysia in 2014. DENVs of different serotypes and genotypes co-circulated in the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. Moreover, not only had DENV been imported to Guangzhou, but it had also been gradually exported, as the viruses exhibited an enzootic transmission cycle in Guangzhou.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular epidemiology demonstrates that imported and local strains circulated during the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China

Pan

et al. 2017

Virol. Sin.

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“…This approach has proven to be highly useful for disease prevention and has been used to forecast epidemics, which is imperative for the preparedness of health systems to cope with such outbreaks [3, 4, 7, 12–19]. For example, land surface temperature and vegetation index obtained from satellite data showed significant correlation with the occurrence of sand flies in East Africa [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental factors associated with the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in endemic areas of Bangladesh: modeling the ecological niche

et al. 2017

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BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic infection (also called kala-azar in South Asia) caused by Leishmania donovani that is a considerable threat to public health in the Indian subcontinent, including densely populated Bangladesh. The disease seriously affects the poorest subset of the population in the subcontinent. Despite the fact that the incidence of VL results in significant morbidity and mortality, its environmental determinants are relatively poorly understood, especially in Bangladesh. In this study, we have extracted a number of environmental variables obtained from a range of sources, along with human VL cases collected through several field visits, to model the distribution of disease which may then be used as a surrogate for determining the distribution of Phlebotomus argentipes vector, in hyperendemic and endemic areas of Mymensingh and Gazipur districts in Bangladesh. The analysis was carried out within an ecological niche model (ENM) framework using a maxent to explore the ecological requirements of the disease.ResultsThe results suggest that VL in the study area can be predicted by precipitation during the warmest quarter of the year, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference water index (NDWI). As P. argentipes is the single proven vector of L. donovani in the study area, its distribution could reasonably be determined by the same environmental variables. The analysis further showed that the majority of VL cases were located in mauzas where the estimated probability of the disease occurrence was high. This may reflect the potential distribution of the disease and consequently P. argentipes in the study area.ConclusionsThe results of this study are expected to have important implications, particularly in vector control strategies and management of risk associated with this disease. Public health officials can use the results to prioritize their visits in specific areas. Further, the findings can be used as a baseline to model how the distribution of the disease caused by P. argentipes might change in the event of climatic and environmental changes that resulted from increased anthropogenic activities in Bangladesh and elsewhere.

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“…(3) Hence, even with a greater emphasis on public health controls, there will still be an increase in emerging disease events. What is of greater concern is that this may be only the beginning of observed climate-related diseases in this region and other locations.…”

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confidence: 99%