Dengue in the Philippines: model and analysis of parameters affecting transmission

Abstract

Dengue is endemic in the Philippines and poses a substantial economic burden in the country. In this work, a compartmentalized model which includes healthcare-seeking class is developed. The reproduction number is determined to investigate critical parameters influencing transmission. Partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) technique is performed to address how the model output is affected by changes in a specific parameter disregarding the uncertainty over the rest of the parameters. Results show that mosquito biting rate, transmission probability from mosquito to human, respectively, from human to mosquito, and fraction of individuals who seek healthcare at the onset of the disease, posted high PRCC values. In order to obtain the values for the desired parameters, the reported dengue cases by morbidity week in the Philippines for the year 2014 and 2015 are used. The reliability of parameters is then verified via parametric bootstrap.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in Caraga Region, the Philippines

“…We fix the values of b h and δ h based on the calculations using the available data. We also fix the values of b v , δ v , and the transmission probabilities θ vh and θ hv , following the results in [39,67]. Since there is limited information on the values for α , γ and p , a uniform distribution is assigned to their corresponding parameter ranges which we set to ±50% of their respective baseline values given in table 2.…”

“…Since there is limited information on the values for α , γ and p , a uniform distribution is assigned to their corresponding parameter ranges which we set to ±50% of their respective baseline values given in table 2. On the other hand, since β has already been estimated in [67], we used a normal distribution with the nominal value in table 2 as the mean and a standard deviation of 0.1. The range of values for the treatment rates r 1 and r 2 is from 0.0019 to 0.5, or from two weeks to 10 years, while the range of values for the partitioning parameter m is from 0 to 1.…”

“…Meanwhile, since LF and dengue are transmitted by mosquitoes of the same genus ( Aedes ), the parameter values for the mosquito death rate δ v and mosquito biting rate β are obtained from a dengue model presented by de los Reyes V & Escaner IV [67]. Here, we assume that b v = δ v .…”

Stability and Sensitivity Analysis of Dengue-Malaria Co-Infection Model in Endemic Stage

“…1 The data used in this study are secondarily sourced from [7,15]. In accordance with previous studies on mathematical model of dengue virus [10,16,17,15] and malaria model [19,20,21,22], we formulate a SIR-SI deterministic model of dengue and malaria co-infection. In this model, the total human population N h is partitioned into seven classes; susceptible human S h , infected human with dengue virus I hd , infected human with malaria I hm , infected human with both dengue virus and malaria I dm , recovery of infected human from dengue virus ,malaria fever and co-infected individuals are R hd , R hm , R dm respectively.…”

A Model of Vaccination for Dengue in the Philippines 2016–2018

“…We first assume a weekly rate 0.06, which corresponds to 70% effectiveness overall (Figure 4). The vaccine-effectiveness percentage is controversial, and we will explore outcomes with other values [11][12][13]. We assume the time dependent vaccination rate ] R (t) of previously infected susceptibles is the same as ] S (t), and the fraction of vaccination effectiveness is also the same.…”