Density and Distancing in the Covid-19 Pandemic

Borg, Gabriele; Giambra, Samuele; Knight, Samsun

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3597697

Cited by 4 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…The median duration of visits accounts for the length of time visitors are spending in a business. Businesses where visitors linger for longer could be riskier for COVID-19 transmission than businesses where visitors are quickly in and out of the business 8,10 .…”

Section: Index Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

et al. 2021

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The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states reopen businesses is unknown. In this paper, we used anonymized cell-phone data to quantify the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission in business establishments by building a Business Risk Index that measures transmission risk over time. The index was built using two metrics, visits per square foot and the average duration of visits, to account for both density of visits and length of time visitors linger in the business. We analyzed trends in traffic patterns to 1,272,260 businesses across eight states from January 2020 to June 2020. We found that potentially risky traffic behaviors at businesses decreased by 30% by April. Since the end of April, the risk index has been increasing as states reopen. There are some notable differences in trends across states and industries. Finally, we showed that the time series of the average Business Risk Index is useful for forecasting future COVID-19 cases at the county-level (P < 0.001). We found that an increase in a county’s average Business Risk Index is associated with an increase in positive COVID-19 cases in 1 week (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1–1.26)). Our risk index provides a way for policymakers and hospital decision-makers to monitor the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission from businesses based on the frequency and density of visits to businesses. This can serve as an important metric as states monitor and evaluate their reopening strategies.

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Section: Index Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Borg et al showed an average decrease of foot traffic in all businesses during the pandemic during pandemic 10 . Experts have cautioned of the potential resurgence of the virus if we open our economy prematurely [11][12][13][14][15][16] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

et al. 2021

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“…The average duration of visits accounts for the length of time visitors are spending in a business. Businesses where visitors linger for longer periods of time could be riskier for COVID-19 transmission than businesses where visitors are quickly in and out of the business 8, 10 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Borg et al, showed an overall average decrease of 25% foot traffic overall in all businesses, with a much smaller drop in religious attendance, during pandemic 10 . Experts have cautioned of the potential resurgence of the virus if we open our economy prematurely [11][12][13][14][15] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Reopening Businesses and Risk of COVID-19 Transmission

O’Donoghue¹,

Dechen²,

Pavlova

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Purpose: The United States has the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world to date, with over 94,000 COVID-19-related deaths. The true risk of a COVID-19 resurgence as states prepare to reopen businesses is unknown. This paper aims to classify businesses by their risk of transmission and provide a method to measure traffic and risk at businesses as states reopen in order to quantify the relationship between the density of potential super-spreader businesses and COVID-19 cases. Methods: We constructed a COVID-19 Business Transmission Risk Index based upon the frequency and duration of visits and square footage of businesses pre-pandemic in 2019 in 8 states (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, New York, and California). We used this index to classify businesses as potential super-spreaders. Then, we analyzed the association between the density of super-spreader businesses in a county and the rate of COVID-19 cases. We performed significance testing using a negative binomial regression. The main outcome of interest is the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases each week. Results: We developed an index to monitor traffic and quantify potential risk at businesses and found a positive association between the density of potential superspreader businesses and COVID-19 cases. A 1 percentage point increase in the density of super-spreader businesses is associated with 5% higher COVID-19 cases, all else equal. Conclusion: Higher densities of potential super-spreader businesses are associated with higher rates of COVID-19 cases. This may have important implications for how states reopen potential super-spreader businesses. Our main contribution is an index that provides a way for policymakers to monitor traffic and potential risk at businesses as states reopen.

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“…In the United States, the drop-off centers are adding to the burden. People are very slowly beginning to go back to work and it is our expectation that this is going to continue and some authors will argue a decrease in the amount of residential waste and an increase in the amount of commercial waste being generated [32].…”

Section: Pressure On the Msw Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19: Turning a Threat into an Opportunity for the Circular Economy

Doussoulin¹

2021

Circular Economy - Recent Advances, New Perspectives and Applications

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The current crisis dominates everything from health to day-to-day life. But it will pass over within a relatively short space of time and the economic recession seems likely to reverse the long-standing pattern. Given the gravity of the circumstances, nations have been constrained to undertake unusual approach arrangements. This article proposes a framework of the COVID-19 effect following analysis and comparison of the most prominent concepts of the public health and circular economy. Our paper helps to identify the positions of each of these concepts with regard to public health, environmental sustainability and economic growth. This study enriches the literature on the environmental sciences and public health by providing analysis of the effects of the policies. Finally, this article recognizes that there must be local action priorities that allow for small and sequential wins in economic, health and environmental aspects in the territory.

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Density and Distancing in the Covid-19 Pandemic

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

Reopening Businesses and Risk of COVID-19 Transmission

COVID-19: Turning a Threat into an Opportunity for the Circular Economy

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