Departure Time and Route Choices With Accurate Information Under Binary Stochastic Bottleneck Capacity in the Morning Commute

Abstract

Uncertainty, a critical factor of causing congestion and extra travel costs in the commute, can be mitigated by providing information. This paper studies the welfare effects of accurate pretrip information on departure time and route choices in the morning commute under binary stochastic bottleneck capacity. We consider a classical two-route network. Each route has a single bottleneck where congestion occurs during the rush hours. The two routes' bottleneck capacities vary from day-to-day due to events such as bad weather, accidents, and temporary road closures. We derive all equilibrium solutions in consideration of the differences between routes in free-flow travel time, the shadow value of travel time, the severity of bottleneck capacity reductions, and the degree of correlation between two routes in travel conditions. Furthermore, we investigate the benefit changes from zero-information to full-information and prove that accurate pre-trip information about the bottleneck conditions is strictly welfare-improving. Finally, these theoretical results are supplemented by case studies that show examples of benefit gains from pre-trip information.INDEX TERMS Departure time choice, route choice, bottleneck, congestion, pre-trip information, uncertainty.