Dependence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Internal and External Drivers

Salminen, Antti; Asikainen, Timo; Maliniemi, Ville; Мурсула, К.

doi:10.1029/2019gl086444

Cited by 15 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…As such, they support results by Salminen et al. (2020), who showed SSW occurrence rates being modulated by geomagnetic activity during the latter half of the 20th century. SSWs have a substantial impact on winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere by causing cold weather spells to North America and Europe (Baldwin et al., 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…They hypothesized that the increased planetary wave activity before the SSW favors enhanced wave-mean-flow interaction, which can dynamically amplify the initial polar vortex enhancement caused by the O 3 loss. Furthermore, Salminen et al (2020) show that EEP can significantly influence the occurrence rate of SSWs. The initial pre-conditions such as SSWs are, however, somewhat challenging to account for in the free-running mode, as the EEP impact itself and its dynamical feedback is expected to modulate them.…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Furthermore, Salminen et al. (2020) show that EEP can significantly influence the occurrence rate of SSWs. The initial pre‐conditions such as SSWs are, however, somewhat challenging to account for in the free‐running mode, as the EEP impact itself and its dynamical feedback is expected to modulate them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Direct Effect of Medium Energy Electron Precipitation on Mesospheric Dynamics During a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in 2010

López

Tyssøy

Smith‐Johnsen

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Medium energy electron (MEE) (30–1,000 keV) precipitation enhances the production of nitric (NOx) and hydrogen oxides (HOx) throughout the mesosphere, which can destroy ozone (O3) in catalytic reactions. The dynamical effect of the direct mesospheric O3 reduction has long been an outstanding question, partly due to the concurrent feedback from the stratospheric O3 reduction. To overcome this challenge, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 is applied in the specified dynamics mode for the year 2010, with and without MEE ionization rates. The results demonstrate that MEE ionization rates can modulate temperature, zonal wind and the residual circulation affecting NOx transport. The required fluxes of MEE to impose dynamical changes depend on the dynamical preconditions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter, even weak ionization rates can modulate the mesospheric signal of a sudden stratospheric warming event. The result provides a first step in a paradigm shift for the understanding of the MEE direct effect.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

mentioning

confidence: 95%

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The Direct Effect of Medium Energy Electron Precipitation on Mesospheric Dynamics During a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in 2010

López

Tyssøy

Smith‐Johnsen

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The steepness also indicates how strongly X increases (b > 0) or decreases (b < 0) the occurrence probability. Recently, Salminen et al (2020) studied the dependence of SSW occurrence rate on several different factors (geomagnetic activity, sunspots, El Niño and QBO). They showed that SSW events occur more often during winters where geomagnetic activity (ap index in December) is low and which are preceded by easterly QBO at 30 hPa in September.…”

Section: Logistic Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐Term Prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings With Geomagnetic and Solar Activity

et al. 2023

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The polar vortex is a strong jet of westerly wind which forms each winter around the polar stratosphere. Sometimes, roughly every other winter, the polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere experiences a dramatic breakdown and associated warming of the polar stratosphere. Such events are called sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and they are known to have a significant influence on ground weather in Northern Eurasia and large parts of North America. Typically, these events are thought to occur due to planetary waves propagating to the stratosphere where they may disrupt the vortex. Here, we show that the SSW probability depends significantly on a favorable combination of geomagnetic and solar activity and the phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Using logistic regression models, we find that more SSWs occur when early‐winter geomagnetic activity (aa index) is low and QBO winds are easterly and when solar activity (F10.7 index) is high and QBO winds are westerly. We then examine the possibility of using these results to predict the occurrence probability of SSWs with several months lead time and evaluate the optimal lead times for all variables using cross‐validation methods. As a result, we find that the SSW probability can be predicted rather well and we can issue a probabilistic SSW prediction for the coming winter season with a success ratio of about 86% already in the preceding August. The results presented here are an important step toward improving the seasonal predictability of wintertime weather using information about solar and geomagnetic activity.

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“…It was demonstrated that the effect of SSW propagated down to the surface and lasted more than 2 months after the onset of SSW and that the surface pressure signal shifted more toward a negative pattern of the AO (Thompson & Wallace, 1998). The occurrence of SSW was more frequent in the east QBO winters and the effect of the QBO phase on the occurrence of SSW was stronger during the period of low GMA or when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was in the cold phase (Salminen et al., 2020). According to the results of Asikainen et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Associations Between Geomagnetic Activity, Solar Wind, Solar Proton Events, and Winter NAO and AO Indices

Venclovienė

Kiznys

Žaltauskaitė

2022

Earth and Space Science

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Numerous studies have revealed evidence that winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere is related to the solar cycle and space weather. Most of the studies investigating the impact of space weather on the North Atlantic Oscillation and Artic Oscillation indices (NAOIs and AOIs) analyzed monthly or seasonal data. In this work, we evaluated the responses of winter NAOI/AOI to space weather changes on the day‐to‐day timescale during 1950–2020 by using an autoregressive (AR) model with additional predictors, such as month, linear trend, trends of solar irradiance and Kp indices, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the presence of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and high stratospheric aerosol loading (HSAL), and space weather variables, reflecting the day‐to‐day effect. Winter daily NAOI (AOI) follows the AR model of the 4th (5th) order. We found a positive day‐to‐day effect of Kp, solar wind speed (SWS) > 300 km/s, By ≤ 3.15 nT, and solar wind dynamic pressure (P) with a lag of 2 days on the NAOI and the AOI. For the AOI, additionally, the period of 1 day before–2 days after the solar proton event onset had a negative effect, and the signal of Kp and SWS was observed only for the east QBO phase. For the NAOI, a stronger effect of P was found on the presence of a strongly positive QBO phase. A stronger signal of Kp and SWS was found during HSAL. The signal of SWS > 300 km/s on the NAOI/AOI was different in sign during the periods with and without SSW.

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Dependence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Internal and External Drivers

Cited by 15 publications

References 54 publications

The Direct Effect of Medium Energy Electron Precipitation on Mesospheric Dynamics During a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in 2010

The Direct Effect of Medium Energy Electron Precipitation on Mesospheric Dynamics During a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in 2010

Long‐Term Prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings With Geomagnetic and Solar Activity

Statistical Associations Between Geomagnetic Activity, Solar Wind, Solar Proton Events, and Winter NAO and AO Indices

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