We report on a phenomenological, theoretical model to calculate the rate constants and activation energies for the thermal conversion reactions from poly(xylylidene tetrahydrothiophenium chloride) (PTHT) into poly(p-phenylenevinylene) (PPV) using the optical absorption spectra of spin-coated films. The probabilities of electron transitions were calculated considering Franck-Condon states with a Gaussian distribution of conjugated segments and molecular excitons. The dependence on the conjugation degree (n) for the energy gap, transition dipole moment, and electron-phonon coupling were obtained semiempirically using published data for PPV. Fitting was performed for the C-C stretching of the aromatic ring 1550 cm(-1), for it is considered the most optically active. The isotherms for consumption and formation of PPV segments were fitted using a first-order and consecutive reactions, respectively. With this modeling we could identify the most probable reactions, where the formation of longer PPV segments n ≥ 3 occurs only via reactions from smaller conjugated segments (i.e., n = 1 and 2). The activation energies tend to decrease with longer conjugation lengths. Significantly, the modeling allows us to predict the conversion temperature and chemical composition yielding a predefined distribution of conjugated segments, which can be applied to any polymer undergoing thermal conversion, decomposition, or photo-oxidation.