Dependency of tropical cyclone risk on track in South Korea

Nam, Chaehyeon Chelsea; Park, Doo‐Sun R.; Ho, Chin Siong; Chen, Deliang

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-3225-2018

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Y. Lu et al, 2021;Nam et al, 2018). Data sets of precipitation induced by TCs were obtained using the objective synoptic analysis technique (OSAT) developed by Ren et al (2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Disasters Over China During 2001–2020

Zhao

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) constitute one of the biggest threats to human life and property, and generate a number of different hazards such as storm surges, flooding, extreme winds, tornadoes, and lightning, leading to an annual average of 43 deaths and US$78 million in losses from 1970 to 2019 (WMO, 2021). TC disasters losses refers to the socioeconomic impact of TC disasters, such as fatality, crop failure, and direct economic losses (DELs). Since 1970, China has been one of the countries most frequently affected by TCs (HRD, 2021). The DELs and fatalities induced by TCs in China accounted for 17% and 10% of the total losses induced by meteorological disasters during 2001 , respectively (Y. Li et al., 2021. The southern part of China is most frequently affected by TCs, with increasing trends in economic losses for most areas (Wen et al., 2018). Guangdong is the province most frequently influenced by TCs in this region, and suffers the greatest losses among all provinces in China (Y. Wang et al., 2016;Yao et al., 2020). TC precipitation is a major hazard and more positively correlated with DELs than wind speed in China (Wen et al., 2018;. Indeed, the six highest records of 24-hr accumulated rainfall in China were all caused by TCs (L. Chen et al., 2010;Zhao, Gao, et al., 2022;. The annual TC precipitation volume over China has shown a significant downward trend (Ren et al., 2006). However, both the frequency and intensity of TC extreme rainfall have shown slight increasing trends (Y. Li & Zhao, 2022). The spatial distribution of annual TC precipitation and its trend is uneven over China. Specifically, TCs affect southeastern

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“…Y. Lu et al, 2021;Nam et al, 2018). Data sets of precipitation induced by TCs were obtained using the objective synoptic analysis technique (OSAT) developed by Ren et al (2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Disasters Over China During 2001–2020

Zhao

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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“…The best-track data for TC locations and maximum wind speeds were obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. TCs passing through lines less than 300 km from the coastlines of South Korea were regarded as affecting South Korea [15,16]. Since the fast movement of TCs in the mid-latitudes, i.e., about 120 km per 6 h [17] may lead to missing several TCs affecting South Korea, 6-hourly original TC data were linearly interpolated into 1-hourly data in order to more accurately count the number of TCs striking South Korea [18].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Performance Evaluation of Potential Intensity over the Tropical Cyclone Passage to South Korea Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

et al. 2021

Self Cite

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Potential intensity (PI) is a metric for climate model evaluation of TC-related thermodynamic conditions. However, PI is utilized usually for assessing basin-wide TC-related thermodynamic conditions, and not for evaluating TC passage to a certain region. Here we evaluate model-simulated PI over the passage of TCs affecting South Korea (KOR PI) as well as the PI over the entire western North Pacific basin (WNP PI) using 25 CMIP5 and 27 CMIP6 models. In terms of pattern correlations and bias-removed root mean square errors, CMIP6 model performances for KOR PI are found to be noticeably improved over CMIP5 models in contrast to negligible improvement for WNP PI, although it is not in terms of normalized standard deviations. This implies that thermodynamic condition on the route of TCs affecting South Korea is likely better captured by CMIP6 models than CMIP5 models.

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“…Storm data only provides the characteristics of a storm, it does not reflect local weather conditions. Locally experienced weather conditions can directly affect the power grid, and it can be highly contributed to damage forecasting [31].…”

Section: ) Explanatory Variables: Weather Station Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm-Induced Power Grid Damage Forecasting Method for Solving Low Probability Event Data

Heo

Jufri

et al. 2021

IEEE Access

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The data obtained from storm-induced damage to power grids possesses an inherent skewness distribution, which impedes the development of the damage forecasting model. An inaccurate damage forecasting model may fail to accurately forecast the damages and hinder the planning, preventive measures, and restorative actions for a storm event. This study investigates the challenges that must be overcome to yield an accurate model and proposes a machine learning-based damage forecasting method. A robust forecasting model was developed by identifying the key explanatory variables using the G-mean values. The method combines the application of the weighted extreme learning machine (ELM) and long short-term memory model (LSTM) to forecast power grid damage in response to storm events. The weighted ELM is used to classify the grid state for a storm in advance and the LSTM is subsequently used to forecast the number of grid damage cases. The actual storm event data were used to verify the efficacy of the proposed method using the root mean square error. The results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the regular forecasting method as it is more robust and accurate.INDEX TERMS Extreme weather events, machine learning, power grid resilience, imbalanced data, predictive analytics.

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Dependency of tropical cyclone risk on track in South Korea

Cited by 20 publications

References 23 publications

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Disasters Over China During 2001–2020

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Disasters Over China During 2001–2020

A Performance Evaluation of Potential Intensity over the Tropical Cyclone Passage to South Korea Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Storm-Induced Power Grid Damage Forecasting Method for Solving Low Probability Event Data

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