Depressions in the colombian economic growth during the XX century: a Markov switching regime model

Misas, Martha; Ramı́rez, Marı́a Teresa

doi:10.32468/be.340

Cited by 8 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…5 For an application of Markov switching regime models with time-varying transition probabilities to study business cycles see, for example, Filardo (1994), Moolman (2004), Simpson et al (2001), Höppner and Assenmacher-Wesche (2001), Ming Chien and Piger (2005), Soto (2002), among others. 6 According to Misas and Ramírez (2007), most studies of Colombian business cycles, with the exception of Arango and Melo (2006), assume that the growth rate follows a linear process; for instance, see Posada (1999), Fernández and Gonzáles (2000) and Urrutia and Fernández, (2003). 7 Misas and Ramírez (2007) found that transitions between states were sudden and sporadic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…capita GDP grew, on average 1.9 percent per year between 1925 and 2005. As mentioned inMisas and Ramírez (2007), in general, the Colombian economy has stayed on a path of sustainable growth. In particular, positive per capita growth has characterized the Colombian economy for long periods, the longest being between 1959 and 1974.…”

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confidence: 96%

“…Also, if the economy is in the depression state, an increase in government expenditures and terms of trade decreases the probability of remaining in this state, while an increase in capital outflows increases this probability. See for example:Misas and Ramírez (2007),Beyaert et al (2007),Chen and Shen (2007),Mills and Wang (2006),Kim et al (2005), Frömmel et al (2005), Ming-Yuan et al (2005), Cruz (2005), Pok-Sank (2004), Buckle et al (2004), Moolman (2004),…”

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confidence: 99%

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Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities

Misas¹,

Ramírez-Giraldo²

2006

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We modelled the Colombian long-run per capita growth under Markov switching regimes with time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of nonlinearity in the per capita economic growth, and identified two different levels in the data associated with depression and sustainable growth regimes. The hypothesis of fixed transition probabilities (FTP) is rejected in favour of the time-varying transition probabilities. Then, TVTP model gives more information than the FTP model because the probabilities have changed significantly during the period under analysis and the explanatory variables are very informative in dating the evolution of the state of the economy, especially those associated with external shocks. In particular, the probability of remaining in the sustainable growth regime increases with a rise in terms of trade and decreases with a rise in government expenditures. Increases in government expenditures and terms of trade reduce the probability of being in the depression state while an increase in capital outflows raises the probability.JEL classification: O40, C22, E32, N16

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 96%

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confidence: 99%

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Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities

Misas¹,

Ramírez-Giraldo²

2006

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“…For details on the evolution of GDP growth in Colombia during the twentieth century, see for exampleGreco (2002) andMisas and Ramírez (2007).19 See for exampleKomlos and Lauderale (2007).…”

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Long run relationship between biological well being, and economic development in Colombia

Meisel-Roca¹,

Ramírez-Giraldo²,

Santos-Cárdenas³

2019

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This paper explores the long run relationship between the physical stature of Colombians born during the twentieth century and several socioeconomic development indicators using time series techniques. The econometric analysis is carried out considering three height measures: female's height, male's height, and the gender height dimorphism. The database comprises height information from the national identification cards for nearly 13 million persons born between 1910 and 1989: 6.283.452 men and 6.383.023 women. Results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between all height measures and the economic variables included in the analysis. In general, the results indicate that improvements in the availability of better-quality food, and the reduction in food prices, measured by the degree of openness and by infrastructure developments, as well as improvements in the economic conditions lead to increases in average height. Regarding gender height inequality, the results show that height dimorphism in absolute terms decreased during the twentieth century. However, the downward trend observed until the end of 1950s reversed at the beginning of the 1960s, despite the advances in the living conditions of women during this period. This result suggests that earlier improvements in the economic conditions benefited women more than men, given the considerable gender gap in education, health, and income at the beginning of the twentieth century. On the contrary, GDP growth during the second half of the twentieth had higher returns for men relative to women.

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“…Esta recesión es atribuída a factores externos (una crisis financiera mundial y su efecto en los términos de intercambio) e internos, incluyendo un sistema financiero débil y un consumo desbordado durante la primera mitad de la década. Estos factores causaron el deterioro de las finanzas públicas (Misas y Ramírez, 2005).…”

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El homicidio en los tiempos del Plan Colombia

Barón-Rivera¹

2009

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Depressions in the colombian economic growth during the XX century: a Markov switching regime model

Cited by 8 publications

References 26 publications

Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities

Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities

Long run relationship between biological well being, and economic development in Colombia

El homicidio en los tiempos del Plan Colombia

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