Deprivation, instability, and propensity to attack: how urbanization influences terrorism

Abstract

The study investigates different ways in which urbanization and its tempo influence terrorist activity. In line with other researchers investigating nonlinear effects on instability, we suggest that the influence of both of them is nonlinear, with quadratic regression being more appropriate for urbanization level impact and interaction between urbanization and its tempo being more appropriate to measure the tempo's influence. Nonlinearity has been confirmed in the robustness section of the paper, in which an alternative dependent variable distribution and a greater set of control variables were used. The findings are in line with those of other researchers who found that societies, in the process of modernization, demonstrate heavier instability than societies before modernization or those after the modernization period.

Urban Youth and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis (Are Youth Bulges Relevant Anymore?)

“…We wish to mention here the most recent investigation on the link between urbanization and the number of terrorist attacks. Slav et al (2021) find the link to be curvilinear, with the terrorist attacks increasing at the first stages of urbanization and declining at the latter ones. Similarly, a higher tempo of urbanization stimulates instability at the initial stages of urbanization but has a pacifying effect as society modernizes.…”

“…Tavares (2004: 11) argues that urbanized countries are more convenient for terrorists as it is much easier for them to hide in crowded areas. Also, visibility and damage which come from terrorist assaults are usually higher in cities (Campos and Gassebner, 2013; Mccartan et al, 2008; Python et al, 2019; Savitch and Ardashev, 2001; Slav et al, 2021). More urbanized countries can experience more domestic and transnational terrorist attacks due to all these factors acting combined—it could be easier for terrorists “to hide and change location but also because terror acts generate more publicity in urban areas than in remote rural areas” (Kis-Katos et al, 2011: 14).…”