Depth‐Duration‐Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon

Upadhyay, Divya; Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar; Bhatia, Udit

doi:10.1029/2020jd034193

Cited by 6 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 117 publications

(207 reference statements)

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“…If the underlying probability distribution functions remain consistent over time, it suggests that the fundamental processes and patterns governing the synchrony of extremes are relatively stable. Conversely, if the distributions diverge or differ significantly, it could indicate that certain aspects of the system are undergoing substantial changes, potentially driven by external factors or intrinsic variability (Upadhyay et al., 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical Trapping of Synchronous Extremes Amidst Increasing Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Tantary,

Tangirala,

Murthugudde

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Concurrent extreme rainfall events, or synchronous extremes, during Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), cause significant damage, but their spatiotemporal evolution remains unclear. Using the event synchronization approach to examine the synchronicity of extreme rainfall events from 1901 to 2019, we find that Central India consistently hosts strongly connected synchronous extreme hubs with localized connections, indicating the geographical trapping of these concurrent events in the region. We observe a moderate positive correlation between network cohesiveness and El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a negative correlation between ENSO and link lengths, suggesting localized synchronicity during El Niño dominant decades and opposite patterns in La Niña periods. Despite increasing ISMR variability and spatial nonuniformity, the persistence of hubs and network attributes could offer insights for predicting synchronous extremes, informing effective adaptation and risk management strategies during the monsoon season.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical Trapping of Synchronous Extremes Amidst Increasing Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Tantary,

Tangirala,

Murthugudde

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The Mediterranean climate causes less rainfall in summer but more rainfall in winter, while the monsoon climate behaves in an opposite way. Seasonal precipitation controlled by the monsoon climate can be high‐intensity, sometimes even very extreme (Ezaz et al, 2022; Falga & Wang, 2022; Gao et al, 2017; Upadhyay et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying hydrological responses to monsoon‐controlled precipitation across the soil‐groundwater‐stream continuum with long‐term high‐frequency hydrometric monitoring

Dai,

Xie,

Liao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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Stream water, groundwater and soil water in the riparian zone are closely linked. Their responses to rainfall events controlled by monsoon climate are variable and intertwined, which are still not well known. To address this knowledge gap, we established a monitoring transect adjacent to a headwater stream in Huashan Catchment, eastern China, with typical monsoon climate. We monitored precipitation, stream stage, groundwater level and soil moisture content at intervals of maximum 30 min. We then conducted an event‐based analysis of rainfall event characteristics and diverse response metrics, and assessed their correlations and interrelationships through correlation and regression analysis. Our 2‐year monitoring results show that water level responses occurred in most rainfall events. They had smaller threshold of rainfall amount and timing but longer time to peak response. Stream responses exhibited smaller response magnitude and intensities than groundwater responses. Rainfall amount and event duration were the most critical driving factors for groundwater responses. Soil moisture responses varied with depth. Only large storms could propagate into topsoil and generate rapid responses. Middle soil moisture responses had more frequent response occurrence and more variable response magnitude, while deep soil moisture responses had smaller response magnitude, longer time to peak response and larger wetting front movement velocity. Attenuated initial response timing with depth identified preferential flow, reflecting heterogeneity in the soil profile. Monsoon‐controlled heavy rainfall improved hydrologic connectivity in the soil‐groundwater‐stream continuum (SGSC), mediating the influence of heterogeneity on soil moisture responses and potentially contributing more subsurface flow to catchment runoff. Overall, this study aimed to reveal the mechanism of hydrological responses to monsoon‐controlled precipitation across the SGSC.

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“…The Multi-Model Ensemble members (MMEs) and Multiple Initial Condition Ensemble members (MICE) are commonly employed to estimate the model uncertainty and ICV, respectively [3,49,58,59]. MMEs are single realizations from multiple models, and MICE are generated by applying minor perturbations to the model's initial state such that different climate projections behave as surrogates of climate variability [53,60,61,3,62].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MMEs are single realizations from multiple models, and MICE are generated by applying minor perturbations to the model's initial state such that different climate projections behave as surrogates of climate variability [53,60,61,3,62]. Recently, the scientific community has recognized importance of ICV [5,63,49,56,55,58,7,64]. Several studies have explored its role in assessing future climate outcomes, including surface air temperature, a vertical profile of tropical temperature trends, precipitation, and its translation to the streamflow [5,53,63,49,56,65,7,66,67], extreme precipitation [55,58], sea-level rise [68], air quality and associated health risks in a warming world [69].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, the scientific community has recognized importance of ICV [5,63,49,56,55,58,7,64]. Several studies have explored its role in assessing future climate outcomes, including surface air temperature, a vertical profile of tropical temperature trends, precipitation, and its translation to the streamflow [5,53,63,49,56,65,7,66,67], extreme precipitation [55,58], sea-level rise [68], air quality and associated health risks in a warming world [69]. Recently, [70] have used large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models (414 model runs) and recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for projections of temperature-driven impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimizing Reservoir Operation With Demand Uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability

Upadhyay,

Bhatia

2024

Preprint

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Climate change projections, essential for water resource management, are dominated by multiple sources of uncertainty, including scenario uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability (ICV). The latter is often classified as irreducible and thereby overlooked in traditional decision-making processes on regional and local scales. Our study translates these traditionally irreducible uncertainties into actionable insights by leveraging multiple initial condition ensemble (MICE) outputs, a physically based hydrological model and a multiobjective stochastic optimisation approach. We focus on the Sardar Sarovar Dam in Gujarat, India, a multipurpose reservoir integral to flood control, hydropower generation and meeting diverse water demands under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). We find that for the multipurpose reservoir under consideration, despite considering a broad spectrum of outputs, which are equally plausible due to the inherent variability of the climate, the system is highly reliable for meeting the drinking water supply for the region for the next century, although at the cost of agricultural and industrial water supply. Incorporating ICV provides a robust assessment of system attributes, including reliability, vulnerability, and resilience, particularly when these objectives are in trade-off with each other. Our study emphasizes the critical role of accounting for ICV in water resource planning. This analytical approach allows stakeholders to pinpoint specific vulnerabilities, allowing targeted planning for more adaptable and resilient water resource management strategies, including sustainable water supply and flood control.

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Depth‐Duration‐Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon

Abstract: Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in extreme events considering the climate change projections is of fundamental importance to plan for adaptation and mitigation . The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is considered as a unique tropical climate system, strongly influenced by sub-

Cited by 6 publications

References 117 publications

Geographical Trapping of Synchronous Extremes Amidst Increasing Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Geographical Trapping of Synchronous Extremes Amidst Increasing Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Quantifying hydrological responses to monsoon‐controlled precipitation across the soil‐groundwater‐stream continuum with long‐term high‐frequency hydrometric monitoring

Optimizing Reservoir Operation With Demand Uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability

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