Design and Analysis of Social Contact Surveys Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Hens, Niel; Wallinga, Jacco

doi:10.1002/9781118445112.stat07883

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…We computed R 0 as the leading eigenvalue of the next generation matrix informed by the contact matrix while assuming the transmission rates to be pro-portional to the social contact rates, i.e. “the social contact hypothesis” [13, 14] from the 2010 survey and from the eight waves of the CoMix survey separately. To account for sampling variability, we generated 10,000 contact matrices via bootstrapping using the SocialMixr package [15].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

Coletti

Wambua

Gimma

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how a newly emergent communicable disease can lay considerable burden on public health. To avoid system collapse, governments have resorted to several social distancing measures. In Belgium, this included a lockdown and a following period of phased re-opening. Methods: A representative sample of Belgian adults was asked about their contact behaviour from mid-April to mid-July, during different stages of the intervention measures in Belgium. Use of personal protection equipment (face masks) and compliance to hygienic measures was also reported. We estimated the expected reproduction number computing the ratio of R0 with respect to pre-pandemic data. Results: During the first two waves (the first month) of the survey, the reduction in the average number of contacts was around 80% and was quite consistent across all age-classes. The average number of contacts increased over time, particularly for the younger age classes, still remaining significantly lower than pre-pandemic values. Since the end of May, the estimated reproduction number has a median value larger than one, although with a wide dispersion. Conclusions: We have shown how a rapidly deployed survey can measure compliance to social distancing and assess its impact on COVID-19 spread. Monitoring the effectiveness of social distancing recommendations is of paramount importance to avoid further waves of COVID-19.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

Coletti

Wambua

Gimma

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…We computed as the leading eigenvalue of the next generation matrix informed by the contact matrix while assuming the transmission rates to be proportional to the social contact rates, i.e. “the social contact hypothesis” 15 , 26 from the 2010 survey and from the eight waves of the CoMix survey separately. To account for sampling variability, we generated 10,000 contact matrices via bootstrapping using the SocialMixr package 27 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

Coletti

Wambua

Gimma

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

Self Cite

106

130

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The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how a newly emergent communicable disease can lay considerable burden on public health. To avoid system collapse, governments have resorted to several social distancing measures. In Belgium, this included a lockdown and a following period of phased re-opening. A representative sample of Belgian adults was asked about their contact behaviour from mid-April to the beginning of August, during different stages of the intervention measures in Belgium. Use of personal protection equipment (face masks) and compliance to hygienic measures was also reported. We estimated the expected reproduction number computing the ratio of $$\hbox {R}_{0}$$ R 0 with respect to pre-pandemic data. During the first two waves (the first month) of the survey, the reduction in the average number of contacts was around 80% and was quite consistent across all age-classes. The average number of contacts increased over time, particularly for the younger age classes, still remaining significantly lower than pre-pandemic values. From the end of May to the end of July , the estimated reproduction number has a median value larger than one, although with a wide dispersion. Estimated $$\hbox {R}_{0}$$ R 0 fell below one again at the beginning of August. We have shown how a rapidly deployed survey can measure compliance to social distancing and assess its impact on COVID-19 spread. Monitoring the effectiveness of social distancing recommendations is of paramount importance to avoid further waves of COVID-19.

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“…The next generation matrix approach was used to estimate changes in the reproduction number (R t ) (9). The reproduction number was estimated by multiplying R 0 prior to physical distancing interventions by the ratio of the dominant eigenvalues of the POLYMOD UK (6) and observed contact matrices under the assumptions of the social contact theory that the transmission rate is proportional to rate of social contacts (5,19). A meta-analysis reported that, prior to interventions, R 0 followed a normal distribution with a mean of 2.6 and standard deviation of 0.54 (11).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In March, 2020, as transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID- 19), was increasing across Canada, provincial and local governments implemented a variety of nonpharmaceutical public health measures (1). As a main route of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is close contact with an infected individual (2), these restrictions were implemented to reduce contact between individuals and included a variety of physical distancing measures (1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Contact Patterns in Response to COVID-19 Public Health Measures in Canada

Brankston

Merkley

Fisman

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: A variety of public health measures have been implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada to reduce contact between individuals. Objective: The objective of this study was to construct contact patterns to evaluate the degree to which social contacts rebounded to normal levels, as well as direct public health efforts toward age- and location-specific settings. Design: Four population-based cross-sectional surveys. Setting: Canada. Participants: Members of a paid panel representative of Canadian adults by age, gender, official language, and region of residence. Methods: Respondents provided information about the age and setting for each direct contact made in a 24-hour period. Contact matrices were constructed and contacts for those under the age of 18 years imputed. The next generation matrix approach was used to estimate the reproduction number (Rt) for each survey. Respondents with children estimated the number of contacts their children made in school and extracurricular settings. Results: Estimated Rt values were 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29-0.69) for May, 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29-0.68) for July, 1.06 (95% CI: 0.63-1.52) for September, and 0.81 (0.47-1.17) for December. The highest proportion of reported contacts occurred within the home (51.3% in May), in other locations (49.2% in July) and at work (66.3% and 65.4% in September and December). Respondents with children reported an average of 22.7 (95% CI: 21.1-24.3) (September) and 19.0 (95% CI 17.7-20.4) (December) contacts at school per day per child in attendance. Conclusion: The skewed distribution of reported contacts toward workplace settings in September and December combined with the number of reported school-related contacts suggest that these settings represent important opportunities for transmission emphasizing the need to ensure infection control procedures in both workplaces and schools.

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Design and Analysis of Social Contact Surveys Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Cited by 11 publications

References 41 publications

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

Quantifying Contact Patterns in Response to COVID-19 Public Health Measures in Canada

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