Design Evolution and AHP-based Historiography of Lifting Reentry Vehicle Space Programs

Abstract

The term "Historiography" is defined as the writing of history based on the critical examination of sources. In the context of space access systems, a considerable body of literature has been published addressing the history of lifting-reentry vehicle(LRV) research. Many technical papers and books have surveyed legacy research case studies, technology development projects and vehicle development programs to document the evolution of hypersonic vehicle design knowledge gained from the early 1950s onwards. However, these accounts tend to be subjective and qualitative in their discussion of the significance and level of progress made. Even though the information addressed in these surveys is considered crucial, it may lack qualitative or quantitative organization for consistently measuring the contribution of an individual program.The goal of this study is to provide an anatomy aimed at addressing and quantifying the contribution of legacy programs towards the evolution of the hypersonic knowledge base. This paper applies quantified analysis to legacy lifting-reentry vehicle programs, aimed at comprehensively capturing the evolution of LRV hypersonic knowledge base. Beginning with an overview of literature surveys focusing on hypersonic research programs, a comprehensive list of LRV programs, starting from the 1933 Silvervogel to the 2015 Dream Chaser, is assembled. These case-studies are assessed on the basis of contribution made towards major hypersonic disciplines. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to develop an analytical model, to quantify and measure the strength and weakness of primary disciplines for every case-study. Sixty national and international case-studies are evaluated based on one system-level and five discipline-based criteria addressing aerothermodynamics, structure & materials, propulsion, thermal, and sub-system contributions. The AHP model allows a comparative assessment among the case-studies based on quantitative results, which identify a case-studys value and contribution for the growth of the primary disciplines, and the evolution of the overall hypersonic knowledge base. This analysis is further supported by an overview of the case-studies accessed, providing a brief description of LRV research history. An evolutionary pattern among the case-studies is recognized, demonstrating common aspects and influences of major programs throughout history.

A Paradigm-Shift in Aerospace Vehicle Design Synthesis and Technology Forecasting

“…While the first case-study focuses on atmospheric point-to-point hypersonic flight vehicles, the next three casestudies applied the DBMS towards Space Access Vehicles (SAV) design synthesis. These case-studies have been executed by co-authors; Rana [17], McCall, and Haley; and have been aimed at the development and exploration of a comprehensive design solution topography for the lifting reentry vehicles (LRVs) [18] for a LEO resupply mission. These case-studies provide a demonstration of the DBMS' superior capability in sizing vast amount of different tradestudies, since more than 1,400 distinct LRV concepts have been sized & converged collectively in the last three casestudies over a span of 4 months [17].…”