Design for Tsunami Loads and Effects in the ASCE 7-16 Standard

Chock, Gary

doi:10.1061/(asce)st.1943-541x.0001565

Cited by 66 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…We have chosen the 500year event because the mean occurrence year of full-rupture earthquake event at the CSZ is 526 years, also it is the most probable scenario according to a study by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI). The 2,500-year is used because this is consistent with the 2,500 year return internal for structural design in ASCE (Chock, 2016). We also chose 1,000-year because it falls between 500 and 2,500 and to illustrate the trends in the probabilistic analysis.…”

Section: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Ptha) Results At Sementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of inundation depth and momentum flux based fragilities for probabilistic tsunami damage assessment and uncertainty analysis

Park

Cox

Barbosa

2017

Coastal Engineering

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Annual exceedance probabilities of the maximum tsunami inundation depth, h Max , and momentum flux, M Max , conditional on a full-rupture event of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) were used to estimate the probability of building damage using a fragility analysis at Seaside, Oregon. Tax lot data, Google Street View, and field reconnaissance surveys were used to classify the buildings in Seaside and to correlate building typologies with existing fragility curves according to the construction material, number of stories, and building seismic design level based on the date of construction. A fragility analysis was used to estimate the damage probability of buildings for 500-, 1,000-, and 2,500-year exceedance probabilities conditioned on a full-rupture CSZ event. Finally, the sensitivity of building damage was estimated for both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties involved in the process of damage estimation. Probable damage estimates from the fragility curves based on h Max and on M Max both generally show higher damage probability for structures that are wooden and closer to the shoreline than those that are reinforced concrete (RC) and further landward of the shoreline. However, a relatively high and somewhat unrealistic damage probability was found at the river and creek region from the fragility curve analysis using h Max. Within 500 m from the shoreline, wood structure damage shows significant sensitivity to the aleatory uncertainty of the tsunami generation from the CSZ event. On the other hand, RC structure damage showed equal sensitivity to the aleatory uncertainty of the tsunami generation as well as the epistemic uncertainties due to the numerical modeling of the tsunami inundation (friction), the building classification (material and date of construction), and the type of fragility curves (depth or momentum flux type curves). Further from the shoreline, the wood structures showed similar aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, qualitatively similar to the RC structure sensitivity closer to the shoreline.

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Section: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Ptha) Results At Sementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of inundation depth and momentum flux based fragilities for probabilistic tsunami damage assessment and uncertainty analysis

Park

Cox

Barbosa

2017

Coastal Engineering

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“…Existing studies using a force-related TIM (and Froude Number) all rely on empirical formulae to calculate force from depth and velocity. Peak depth and peak velocity generally do not occur at the same time (Chock, 2016), so peak force should not be calculated from the peak values of depth and velocity, but instead force should be calculated at each timestep with the peak force value over the inundation duration being retained for each calculation grid.…”

Section: Numerical Inundation Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Tsunami-Induced Building Damage through Fragility Functions: Critical Review and Research Needs

Charvet

Macabuag

Rossetto

2017

Front. Built Environ.

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Tsunami damage, fragility, and vulnerability functions are statistical models that provide an estimate of expected damage or losses due to tsunami. They allow for quantification of risk, and so are a vital component of catastrophe models used for human and financial loss estimation, and for land-use and emergency planning. This paper collates and reviews the currently available tsunami fragility functions in order to highlight the current limitations, outline significant advances in this field, make recommendations for model derivation, and propose key areas for further research. Existing functions are first presented, and then key issues are identified in the current literature for each of the model components: building damage data (the response variable of the statistical model), tsunami intensity data (the explanatory variable), and the statistical model that links the two. Finally, recommendations are made regarding areas for future research and current best practices in deriving tsunami fragility functions (see Discussion, Recommendations, and Future Research). The information presented in this paper may be used to assess the quality of current estimations (both based on the quality of the data, and the quality of the models and methods adopted) and to adopt best practice when developing new fragility functions.

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“…As interest in developing tsunami loading specifications increases (e.g. Yeh et al, 2005 [38]; Chock, 2016 [6]; Tokimatsu et al, 2016 [32]), the need for highconfidence predictions of tsunami-induced currents becomes paramount. Furthermore, as the structure under consideration exists (or will exist) at a unique location, the engineer must have confidence that the tsunami speed prediction at that specific location is accurate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precise Prediction of Coastal and Overland Flow Dynamics: A Grand Challenge or a Fool’s Errand

Lynett¹

2016

J. Disaster Res.

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In this paper, the challenges in simulation of tsunami-induced currents are reviewed. Examples of tsunami dynamics in harbors, overland flow, and through urban environments are presented, with a focus on the numerical and natural variability in speed predictions. The discussion is largely aimed to show that high-confidence prediction of location-specific currents with a deterministic approach should not be possible in many cases. It is recommended that the tsunami community should look to some type of stochastic approach for current hazard modeling, whether that be a community-wide ensemble approach or a stochastic re-formation of our hydrodynamic theories. Until such tools are available, existing deterministic simulations of tsunami-induced currents require a high level of expert judgement in the analysis, presentation, and usage of model output.

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Design for Tsunami Loads and Effects in the ASCE 7-16 Standard

Cited by 66 publications

References 12 publications

Comparison of inundation depth and momentum flux based fragilities for probabilistic tsunami damage assessment and uncertainty analysis

Comparison of inundation depth and momentum flux based fragilities for probabilistic tsunami damage assessment and uncertainty analysis

Estimating Tsunami-Induced Building Damage through Fragility Functions: Critical Review and Research Needs

Precise Prediction of Coastal and Overland Flow Dynamics: A Grand Challenge or a Fool’s Errand

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