Design risk modeling and analysis for railway construction projects

Gashaw, Tesfaye; Jilcha, Kassu

doi:10.1080/15623599.2022.2070344

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Secara umum untuk mengaplikasikan model matematis, biasanya digunakan simulasi terlebih dahulu sebelum diterapkan di sistem asli [10]. Simulasi dikenal sebagai metode yang digunakan dalam penyelesaian masalah operasional perusahaan, karena simulasi memiliki keunggulan, yaitu mampu menangani masalah-masalah kompleks yang tidak dapat diselesaikan dengan metode analitis [11]. Pemilihan penggunaan metode simulasi dikarenakan banyaknya input variabel yang berdisrtibusi probabilistik, sehingga menimbulkan banyaknya kemungkinan yang terjadi, dan terdapat banyak kejadian tak terkontrol lainnya selama pabrik beroperasi.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Penentuan Kebijakan Pemesanan Bahan Baku Gula Rafinasi Pada Pabrik Gula Batu Cap Kembang Dengan Pendekatan Simulasi

Krisnawati,

Mivitiara,

Kusumaningrum

2023

DINAREK

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Pada pabrik ini belum ada penetapan kebijakan pemesanan bahan bak. Saat ini pemesanan bahan baku dilakukan berdasarkan keinginan pemilik pabrik. Sehingga tujuan dari penelitian adalah mengetahui jumlah dan waktu pemesanan bahan baku berdasarkan jumlah permintaan, dengan meminimalkan total biaya persediaan yang dikeluarkan. Metode penelitiaan yang digunakan adalah pendekatan simulasi DES, dengan menggunakan software extend V.4. berdasarkan hasil simulasi didapatkan hasil penetapan kebijakan pemesanan bahan baku di Pabrik gula cap kembang adalah ketika permintaan tinggi dengan nilai diatas 5.000 sak/bulan digunakan skenario 2 dengan rata-rata lead time 3 hari. Saat permintaan sedang dengan nilai 4.500 sak/bulan hingga 5.000 sak/bulan digunakan skenario 1 rata-rata lead time 7 hari, dan ketika permintaan rendah dengan nilai dibawah 4.500 sak/bulan digunakan skenario 3 rata-rata lead time 3 hari. Total biaya persediaan yang dikeluarkan sebesar Rp.53.709.763/tahun. Sehingga total biaya persediaan mampu menghemat 83% dari total biaya yang dikeluarkaan saat ini.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Penentuan Kebijakan Pemesanan Bahan Baku Gula Rafinasi Pada Pabrik Gula Batu Cap Kembang Dengan Pendekatan Simulasi

Krisnawati,

Mivitiara,

Kusumaningrum

2023

DINAREK

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“…Transport infrastructure development plays a crucial role in creating a transport network. During infrastructure project development stages, cost overruns and project delays are two common factors mentioned in many studies (Park, 2021; Gashaw and Jilcha, 2022); and such issues often occur during the construction stage of transport infrastructure projects, significantly influencing the given project objectives. Even though different management approaches to infrastructure project implementation may be used, construction projects in many countries are still facing the serious problem of project delays and cost overruns (Memon et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant risks that trigger cost overruns and delays in urban rail projects: a typical case study of Vietnam

Nguyen,

Chileshe,

et al. 2024

BEPAM

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PurposeUrban rail projects are typically large-scale transport infrastructure projects (megaprojects) which have many potential risks that can influence the strategic goals of owners. However, there is a paucity of studies which explore the impact of risks on both “urban rail” project time and cost together considering quantitative assessments. Therefore, this paper focuses on investigating critical risks and quantifying such risk impacts on urban railway project schedule and cost in practice.Design/methodology/approachA combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods comprising semi-interviews with five experts and a questionnaire survey of 132 professional respondents is used. The data were modeled using Monte Carlo Simulation to predict the probability of project schedule and cost.FindingsThe results show that 30 risk variables are categorized into seven main groups which have significant impacts on both project time and cost. Outstanding five risk variables were highlighted as follows: (1) project site clearance and land compensation; (2) design changes; (3) physical project resources; (4) contractors’ competencies and (5) project finance. Such findings were supported by Monte Carlo simulation which predicted in the worst case that the project may suffer 11.03 months’ delays and have cost overrun with a contingency of US$287.68 million.Originality/valueThis study expands our knowledge about time and cost contingency of urban metro railway implementation across developing economies and particularly within the context of Vietnam. Policymakers will not only gain an understanding about risk structure but will also recognize the significant impacts of critical risk through risk impact modeling and simulation. Such an approach provides insights into risk treatment priorities for planners so that they can proactively establish suitable strategies for risk mitigation in practice.

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“…There were several previous studies investigating the reasons for design defects and their consequences. These studies were considered to provide a clear view of many reasons for design defects, in addition to their impact on buildings [7][8][9][10]. Hamzah et al [11] described the importance of the design process and its impact on the overall building quality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Prediction System for Design Defects of Buildings

Nouh,

El-Kasaby,

Aboulata

2023

Civ Eng J

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The research aimed to establish a quantitative model to predict the occurrence of five types of design defects: unsafe design, incompatible design, inefficient design, design ambiguity, and design delays. It also examined the contractor's liability for design to determine who is ultimately responsible for design defects disputes between the employer and contractor. The study employed a descriptive methodology to identify fifteen potential influencing factors on design defects. Data were collected from 42 construction projects and tested using Design of Experiments (DOE). Out of these fifteen factors, only five—design schedule, design firm experience, stakeholders’ involvement, project delivery system, and information accuracy—had a significant impact on design defects. These factors were used in the development of a new model to predict the occurrence of design defects. The model was validated using data that was held separate from the model development process for validation purposes. The calculated Mean Absolute Percentage of Error (MAPE) for the new model is 19%, which is considered a "good" prediction accuracy. The research achieved three significant milestones: 1) It identified the ultimate responsibility for the consequences of design defects in construction projects across different jurisdictions. This information can be used to resolve potential disputes between employers, designers, and contractors’ organizations. 2) It provided guidelines on how to minimize design defects in construction projects, thereby mitigating the consequences of such defects. 3) It developed a new model to predict the occurrence of design defects in construction projects. This model aids decision-makers in responsible organizations during the process of predicting the appropriate reserve to be added to the project schedule and budget. Consequently, it helps mitigate the risk of design defect-related delays and cost overruns. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-SP2023-09-017 Full Text: PDF

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Design risk modeling and analysis for railway construction projects

Cited by 7 publications

References 33 publications

Penentuan Kebijakan Pemesanan Bahan Baku Gula Rafinasi Pada Pabrik Gula Batu Cap Kembang Dengan Pendekatan Simulasi

Penentuan Kebijakan Pemesanan Bahan Baku Gula Rafinasi Pada Pabrik Gula Batu Cap Kembang Dengan Pendekatan Simulasi

Significant risks that trigger cost overruns and delays in urban rail projects: a typical case study of Vietnam

Development of a Prediction System for Design Defects of Buildings

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