Designing car bans for sustainable transportation

Plötz, Patrick; Axsen, Jonn; Funke, Simon; Gnann, Till

doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0328-9

Cited by 81 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Internal combustion engine car bans. Relatedly, car bans prohibit the sale or use of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in a given region-thus allowing only ZEVs for sale or use 73 . Although more than a dozen regions have announced some sort of ICE car ban over the past few years, we caution that most merely state targets without mechanisms of enforcement 73 .…”

Section: Fuel-switching Regulations Can Lead the MIXmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Relatedly, car bans prohibit the sale or use of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in a given region-thus allowing only ZEVs for sale or use 73 . Although more than a dozen regions have announced some sort of ICE car ban over the past few years, we caution that most merely state targets without mechanisms of enforcement 73 . To be effective in GHG mitigation, such a ban would need to: (i) apply to the sale of gasoline, diesel and conventional hybrid (non-plug-in) vehicles; (ii) specify a start year; and (iii) include strong financial penalties for noncompliance.…”

Section: Fuel-switching Regulations Can Lead the MIXmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Axsen

Plötz

Wolinetz³

2020

Nat. Clim. Chang.

Self Cite

198

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hile present transport systems provide numerous benefits, the negative societal impacts are enormous. In particular, the global transportation sector is responsible for almost one-quarter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mostly CO 2), with about 72% thereof from road transport 1. Despite decades of progress for alternative and low-carbon fuels and technologies, most developed countries remain locked-in to the dominance of privately owned, fossil fuel-powered vehicles 2,3. Transport emissions are expected to grow further in scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), even if currently announced policies are implemented (Fig. 1) 4-6. This Perspective summarizes available evidence for which policy mixes can be highly effective in reducing GHG emissions within road transport in the long-term while pointing out directions for further policy and research development. Clearly the transportation sector needs to carry its weight in meeting deep decarbonization goals. Compared to 2019, both the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Paris Agreement scenarios require global GHG reductions of about 30-40% by 2030, 60-80% by 2050 and likely close to 100% (or zero net emissions) thereafter 5,7. GHG mitigation ambitions are higher in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries because they are the source of most historical emissions and are thought to have more flexibility for large-scale investment in low-carbon technologies 8. Because expected mitigation costs are lower in road transport than in aviation or shipping 9-11 , we start with the assumption that road transport should at least proportionally fulfil the ambition of the total mitigation targets noted above. That said, emissions from aviation and shipping are growing more quickly and require additional GHG mitigation policies 2. We focus on national and regional policymaking. Cities are important in the transition towards more sustainable transport, but their scope for governmental climate change action tends to be smaller than on the national level 12. While we identify insights with global relevance, most of the available literature analyses developed countries, mainly in Europe and North Americapointing to a clear research need to better understand climate policy design for developing countries. Further, our analysis focuses more on passenger travel which is responsible for most GHG emissions in transport, though we call for more attention to road freight.

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Section: Fuel-switching Regulations Can Lead the MIXmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Fuel-switching Regulations Can Lead the MIXmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Axsen

Plötz

Wolinetz³

2020

Nat. Clim. Chang.

Self Cite

198

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“…Privileged access to commuter lanes, lowemission zones, free parking and charging can offer substantial benefits for EV drivers [13]. Possible future bans of ICEVs in countries or cities bear significant upside potential for the future sales of EVs [36]. With the right policy mix, EVs can accelerate the decarbonization of the power sector [42].…”

Section: Strengthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For most of the weaknesses and threats, policy support measures can mitigate their impact. Some of the EV opportunities are linked to Possible future bans of ICEVs in countries or cities bear significant upside potential for the future sales of EVs [36]. With the right policy mix, EVs can accelerate the decarbonization of the power sector [42].…”

Section: How Can Electric Vehicles Become a Sustainable Success?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?

2020

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Electric vehicles (EVs) have been around for more than a hundred years. Nevertheless, their deployment has not been a sustainable success up until now. Many scientists, engineers and policymakers argue that EVs are a promising, maybe even indispensable option to achieve ambitious decarbonization goals, if powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. At the moment, the EVs market is gaining a lot of momentum and we may be near the point of no return for a sustained mass market deployment of electric vehicles. Many papers exist that describe future prospects of EVs. In our commentary we try to provide a bigger picture view and look at market and societal aspects. We analyze why previous generations of EVs were not successful and how current electric vehicles could become a sustainable success. We perform a semi-quantitative Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis and find that current electric vehicle designs are technologically on par with or better than conventional alternatives. Car buyers go electric when the economics make sense to them. We conclude that incentives are needed for electric vehicles until battery costs lower—as much as to allow EVs to become cheaper—from a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective, than other alternatives. Other policy measures are needed to overcome remaining barriers, especially in supporting the setup and operation of publicly accessible recharging points to overcome range anxiety. EVs in isolation may not be the next mobility killer app. The real next mobility killer app may emerge as an autonomous shared EV in a world where the border between public and private transport will cease to exist. The findings of our commentary are relevant for scientists, policymakers and industry.

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“…Although many countries have proposed bans to prohibit vehicles powered by diesel or gasoline, only a few nations or individual cities have actually legislated against internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Thus, most vehicle bans will not be effective due to the lack of legal enforcement [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

Zhang

Fujimori

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

213

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Electrification is widely considered an attractive solution for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impact of road transportation. Many countries have been establishing increasingly stringent and ambitious targets in support of transport electrification. We conducted scenario simulations to depict the role of transport electrification in climate change mitigation and how the transport sector would interact with the energy-supply sector. The results showed that transport electrification without the replacement of fossil-fuel power plants leads to the unfortunate result of increasing emissions instead of achieving a low-carbon transition. While transport electrification alone would not contribute to climate change mitigation, it is interesting to note that switching to electrified road transport under the sustainable shared socioeconomic pathways permitted an optimistic outlook for a low-carbon transition, even in the absence of a decarbonized power sector. Another interesting finding was that the stringent penetration of electric vehicles can reduce the mitigation cost generated by the 2°C climate stabilization target, implying a positive impact for transport policies on the economic system. With technological innovations such as electrified road transport, climate change mitigation does not have to occur at the expense of economic growth. Because a transport electrification policy closely interacts with energy and economic systems, transport planners, economists, and energy policymakers need to work together to propose policy schemes that consider a cross-sectoral balance for a green sustainable future.

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Designing car bans for sustainable transportation

Cited by 81 publications

References 12 publications

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Will Electric Vehicles Be Killed (again) or Are They the Next Mobility Killer App?

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

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