Despite a century of warming, increased snowfall has buffered the ice phenology of North America’s largest high-elevation lake against climate change

Abstract

Lakes are sentinels of environmental change. In cold climates, lake ice phenology–the timing and duration of ice cover during winter–is a key control on ecosystem function. Ice phenology is driven by a complex interplay between physical characteristics and climatic conditions. Under climate change, lakes are generally freezing later, melting out earlier, and experiencing a shorter duration of ice cover; however, few long-term records exist for large, high-elevation lakes which may be particularly susceptible to climate impacts. Here, we quantified ice phenology over the last century (1927-2022) for North America’s largest high-elevation lake—Yellowstone Lake. We linked ice phenology to precipitation and temperature, and show that while air temperatures have risen, no change in the timing nor duration of ice cover has occurred due to buffering by increased snowfall. Our findings paired with climate projections suggest that Yellowstone Lake may be on the precipice of change with far-reaching implications.