Detectability of the trend in precipitation characteristics over China from 1961 to 2017

Li, Wei; Chen, Yang

doi:10.1002/joc.6826

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…How to optimally conduct a field significance test so as to improve the power of field detection remains unclear. In recent years, field significance tests have been increasingly used for detecting changes in climate extremes at regional and even smaller scales (e.g., Chen et al, 2021;W. Li & Chen 2020;Li et al, 2018;Lorenz et al, 2019;Sun et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020;W.…”

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confidence: 99%

On the Optimal Design of Field Significance Tests for Changes in Climate Extremes

Wang

Zwiers

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Field significance tests have been widely used to detect climate change. In most cases, a local test is used to identify significant changes at individual locations, which is then followed by a field significance test that considers the number of locations in a region with locally significant changes. The choice of local test can affect the result, potentially leading to conflicting assessments of the impact of climate change on a region. We demonstrate that when considering changes in the annual extremes of daily precipitation, the simple Mann‐Kendall trend test is preferred as the local test over more complex likelihood ratio tests that compare the fits of stationary and nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions. This lesson allows us to report, with enhanced confidence, that the intensification of annual extremes of daily precipitation in China since 1961 became field significant much earlier than previously reported.

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confidence: 99%

On the Optimal Design of Field Significance Tests for Changes in Climate Extremes

Wang

Zwiers

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The forest fires in Fujian Province increased first and then decreased in the whole year and fire prevention period. This is mainly attributed to an increase in rainfall in Fujian Province over the study period [50], which resulted in the increase in the moisture content of combustibles. In addition, the strict implementation of the forest fire policy during the fire prevention period resulted in the reduction of fire sources, which restrained the occurrence of forest fires [10].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the increase in extreme weather frequency due to climate change [51], summer forest fires reach and maintain a significant increase. In autumn and winter, due to the increase in precipitation [50] and the policy of the fire prevention period (http://www.slfh.gov.cn/Item/21398.aspx, last accessed date: 2 November 2020), the forest fires changed into a downward trend. The trend change in this study is basically consistent with that of a previous study in China [52], except for a certain difference in spring, which may be caused by the obvious decline of agricultural fires in spring and the elimination of farmland fires in the data of this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climate Influence of Forest Fires in Fujian Province, China

Zeng

Yang

Zhu

et al. 2022

Forests

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Climate determines the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of forest fires by affecting vegetation and the extent of drought. Thus, analyzing the dynamic change of the forest fire season and its response to climate change will play an important role in targeted adjustments of forest fire management policies and practices. In this study, we studied the spatiotemporal variations in forest fire occurrence in Fujian Province, China using the Mann–Kendall trend test and correlation analysis to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 2001 to 2016 and meteorological data. The results show that forest fire occurrence rose first and then declined over the years, but the proportion of forest fires during the fire prevention period decreased. The forest fires increased significantly in spring and summer, exceeding the forest fires occurring in the fire prevention period in 2010. The spatial distribution of forest fires decreased from northwest to southeast coastal areas, among which the number of forest fires in the northwest mountainous areas was large in autumn and winter. The fire risk weather index was strongly and positively correlated with forest fire occurrence across various sites in the province. The findings accentuate the need for properly adjusting the fire prevention period and resource allocation, strengthening the monitoring and early warning of high fire risk weather, and publicizing wildfire safety in spring and summer. As the forest fire occurrence frequency is high in the western and northwest mountainous areas, more observation towers and forest fire monitoring facilities should be installed.

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“…Based on ERA5‐Land ST and SM during 2000–2020, approximately 24.5% of the land area experienced warming‐drying changes in the soil, especially affecting North China and southwestern China. In the context of an ever‐increasing warming climate with decreasing precipitation during the past 21 years, meteorological droughts were frequent, as were concurrent heatwave events (CMA, 2021; Kong et al., 2020; Li & Chen, 2020; Xu et al., 2022). Given that the two regions are in hotspot regions of land–atmosphere coupling (Li et al., 2017), drying trends in the atmosphere can largely propagate into the soil and thus lead to soil warming‐drying changes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological Response to Climate Change Across China From Combined Soil Temperature and Moisture Changes

et al. 2022

Earth and Space Science

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A coupled soil temperature (ST) and moisture (SM) balance reflects a synthetic climate regime, having huge ecological impacts. This paper used ST and SM data from the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts climate reanalysis‐Land and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and leaf area index (LAI) data from the Global Land Surface Satellite Product Suite. The focus was on understanding joint ST‐SM changes and the resulting ecological response across China. The results show that during 2000–2020, 24.5% of the land area in China experienced a warming‐drying trend resulting in a 9.7% LAI decrease, while 6.4% of the area experienced a warming‐wetting trend leading to an 8.6% LAI increase. During 2015–2100, 30.6% of the land area in China will be warmer and drier, while 55.2% of the area will be warmer but wetter across three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, 245, and 585). Superimposed on the long‐term trends, there are also significant spatiotemporal variabilities in ST and SM on annual to decadal timescales. The LAI also showed substantial short‐term fluctuations in both typical regions and ecosystems despite consistent long‐term increases. Our findings suggest that ecosystems could be impaired on annual to decadal scales by adverse soil conditions in the twenty‐first century, but in terms of long‐term trends, ecosystems may be resilient partly because of the compensating effects of global warming and regional hydrological changes. Impact studies should thus focus more on annual to decadal soil‐ecosystem anomalous events.

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Detectability of the trend in precipitation characteristics over China from 1961 to 2017

Cited by 21 publications

References 38 publications

On the Optimal Design of Field Significance Tests for Changes in Climate Extremes

On the Optimal Design of Field Significance Tests for Changes in Climate Extremes

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climate Influence of Forest Fires in Fujian Province, China

Ecological Response to Climate Change Across China From Combined Soil Temperature and Moisture Changes

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