Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

Andrews, Oliver; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Halloran, Paul R.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Quéré, Corinne Le

doi:10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013

Cited by 46 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Yet there is no such model-data agreement over most of the tropical oceans. Observed time series suggest a vertical expansion of the lowoxygen zones in the eastern tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific during the past 50 years (Stramma et al, 2008), conversely with models that simulate increasing O 2 levels with global warming over the historical period (Andrews et al, 2013). A more detailed analysis of the simulated evolution of volumes of low-oxygen waters is given in Sect.…”

Section: General Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…They showed that the model was unable to reproduce the spatial patterns of observed changes. Similarly, Andrews et al (2013) compared output of MPI-ESM-LR and HadGEM2-ES to observations over the historical period. They reported that both models fail to reproduce the pattern of O 2 loss recorded by observations in low-latitude OMZs.…”

Section: Projected Changes In the Extension Of Oxygen Minimum Zonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

et al. 2013

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Abstract. Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO 2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "businessas-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O 2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) • C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44) % and −8.6 (±7.9) %, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) • C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31) % and −2.0 (±4.1) %, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O 2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O 2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue intermodel comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.

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Section: General Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Projected Changes In the Extension Of Oxygen Minimum Zonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

et al. 2013

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“…Oxygen data are the basis for improving estimates of the land carbon sink (Keeling et al, 1996) and, for identifying any emergent fingerprint (Andrews et al, 2013), an extensive O 2 measurement programme is needed. In addition, measurements of at least two carbon variables of the marine inorganic carbon system are necessary.…”

Section: Observational Databasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is, next to water vapour, considered to be the most important natural greenhouse gas on Earth. Rapidly rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by human actions such as fossil fuel burning, land-use change or cement production over the past 250 years have given cause for concern that changes in Earth's climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20 000 years. Investigating global carbon cycle pathways and finding suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies has, therefore, become of major concern in many research fields. The oceans have a key role in regulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and currently take up about 25 % of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems and their services. This requires comprehensive investigations, including high-quality ocean carbon measurements on different spatial and temporal scales, the management of data in sophisticated databases, the application of Earth system models to provide future projections for given emission scenarios as well as a global synthesis and outreach to policy makers. In this paper, the current understanding of the ocean as an important carbon sink is reviewed with respect to these topics. Emphasis is placed on the complex interplay of different physical, chemical and biological processes that yield both positive and negative air-sea flux values for natural and anthropogenic CO 2 as well as on increased CO 2 (uptake) as the regulating force of the radiative warming of the atmosphere and the gradual acidification of the oceans. Major future ocean carbon challenges in the fields of ocean observations, modelling and process research as well as the relevance of other biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gases are discussed.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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“…The ocean has also taken up ∼30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that has been released into the atmosphere, decreasing ocean pH, and fundamentally changing ocean carbonate chemistry in all ocean regions, particularly in the cooler, high latitude waters (IPCC, 2013). Other chemical and physical changes in the ocean attributed to anthropogenic forcing include declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations (Andrews et al, 2013) and alteration of ocean circulation (Cai et al, 2005;Wu et al, 2012). These anthropogenic changes represent risks to marine life and ecosystems (Poloczanska et al, 2013;Gattuso et al, 2015;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

et al. 2016

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Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species' responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species' responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

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Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

Cited by 46 publications

References 69 publications

Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models

The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

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