Detecting Cyclical Turning Points

Abstract

The intricate issue of detecting and forecasting turning points of macroeconomic cycles has been one more time well illustrated recently with the global downturn experienced by most countries around the world in 2000-2001. Governments and Central Banks are very sensitive to economic indicators showing signs of deterioration in order to adjust their policies sufficiently in advance to avoid more deterioration or a recession. These indicators require at least two qualities: they must be reliable and they must provide a readable signal as soon as possible.

Labor Market Indicator for Colombia

“…Moreover, the timing between the turning points behaves as predicted by Mintz (1972) as downturn leads the peak and upturns lag the through. Finally, future research using this indicator may analyze its predictive power to determine turning points, using an approach similar to Anas and Ferrara (2004) combining information of the traditional business cycle and the growth cycle. Another possible extension is to combine the diagnosis of the momentum of the Labor market from the LMI with alternative economic activity measures constructed for different economic sectors and methodologies to improve the assessment of the momentum of the overall economy.…”

“…There are two features of the LMI that will contribute to policy analysis. First, the LMI is useful to give more information during expansions, as it characterizes them as low or high growth phases, second, as the downturns tend to lead peaks, they might be an early signal of the beginning of a recession, which has been used by Anas and Ferrara (2004) to construct the ABCD approach to predict signs of deterioration that might lead to a recession. Understanding then these connections is very useful for economic policy design and analysis.…”

Pemberdayaan Berbasis Asset Based Community Development untuk Meningkatkan konpetensi Profesional Guru Madrasah di Era Industri 4.0

“…Pemberdayaan ini menggunakan pendekatan ABCD (Anas & Ferrara, 2004) Untuk meningkatkan profesionalisme guru madrasah, diperlukan strategi pemberdayaan (Kerka, 2003) dengan melakukan berbagai kegiatan sebagai berikut: Pertama, pendekatan, dalam hal ini melakukan komunikasi langsung dengan pihak komunitas dampingan menyangkut masalah-masalah yang dihadapi para guru dalam proses pembelajaran. Dalam pendekatan ini tim menyampaikan maksud dan tujuan pemberdayaan.…”

Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past

“…Several studies have focused on characterising business cycles using various approaches, such as Bry and Boschan algorithm (Borsi, 2018;Bry & Boschan, 1971;Calderón & Fuentes, 2014;Carmignani, 2010;Gadea et al, 2017;Harding & Pagan, 2002;Majetti, 2012;Martínez-Garcíaa et al, 2015;Mazzi & Savio, 2006;Pretorius & Venter, 2001), MS-VAR model and its extensions (Anas & Ferrara, 2007;Artis et al, 2004;Camacho et al, 2020;Eo & Kim, 2016;Eo & Morley, 2022;Kim et al, 2005;Krolzig, 2001;Liu, 2004;Wang, 2009) and principal component analysis (PCA) (Gehringer & Mayer, 2021).…”

“…Specifically, the results show that there have been three As for the recovery periods in some cycles, there is a coincidence between the recovery dates and the dates of the peaks marking the end of the cycle and the beginning of another cycle. These include the 1982 recovery in the Central African Republic, 1965, 1967in Chad, 1996, 1998 in the Republic of Congo, 2012in Equatorial Guinea and 1981and 2007 in Gabon.…”