Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C–4.0°C global warming

Abstract

Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975–1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980–2000) to 46%–48%, 51%–54%, 61%–67%, and 77%–83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.

Allometric Equations for Predicting Culm Surface Area of Three Bamboo Species (Phyllostachys spp.)

“…henonis, which are called the three major useful bamboos in Japan [34,41]. In Japan, bamboo forests are estimated to cover more than 150,000 ha [42,43]; these three species account for more than 99% [44]. Hence, developing allometric equations is helpful to evaluating the potential of the bamboo forests as a carbon sink.…”

The effects of climate warming and urbanised areas on the future distribution of Cortaderia selloana, pampas grass, in France

“…These habitats are probably not yet all colonised because minimal temperatures may be too low. Recent studies found invasive Poaceae species like Botriochloa ischaemum (L.) Keng , Anisantha tectorum (L.) Nevski or bamboo species to be favoured by warmer and wetter environments (Shi et al ., ; Blumenthal et al ., ; Takano et al ., ). This trend has also been forecast with modelling approaches (Bradley, ).…”

Identifying the vegetation type in Google Earth images using a convolutional neural network: a case study for Japanese bamboo forests

“…Recently, bamboo expansion has become an important problem in Japan because of its invasiveness [ 18 ]. Although some studies have analyzed the bamboo forest distribution probability on a national scale [ 26 , 27 ], monitoring of bamboo expansion is still challenging because it is labor-intensive. Nonetheless, our method has a certain degree of robustness in reducing the amount of training data (see Fig.…”