Detection and attribution of extreme precipitation events over the Asian monsoon region

Dong, Tianyun; Zhu, Xian; Deng, Rong; Ma, Yiling; Dong, Wenjie

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100497

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…As the annual maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) is also a widely used index for daily precipitation extremes, the changes in RX5day in China from previous studies are discussed to further understand the evolution of daily precipitation extremes. RX5day is also projected to increase for the twenty-first century in most areas of China, which holds true for RX1day (Dong et al, 2022a;Zhou et al, 2014). For example, Xu et al (2019) used precipitation simulation from CMIP5 to investigate future precipitation extremes in China and reported that RX1day and RX5day show an increasing trend for the twenty-first century under different scenarios, but the increase of RX1day is more obvious than RX5day.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Liu,

Chen,

Xiong

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The rise of extreme precipitation events has attracted wide attention throughout the world. However, the analysis of precipitation extremes is not sufficient in the short period of instrumental observation and it is complicated by their non‐stationary behaviours. As a period dominated by natural forcing, the last millennium is helpful for understanding long‐term changes in precipitation extremes. Therefore, this study aimed to (1) investigate changes in daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China from the last millennium to the end of the twenty‐first century, (2) detect the non‐stationarity of precipitation extremes and (3) compare design storms by using stationary and non‐stationary distributions. The annual maximum 1‐day precipitation (RX1day) and annual maximum 3‐hour precipitation (RX3hour) are used to quantify variations of precipitation extremes. The results show that the trend of RX1day was insignificant for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950–1250) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500–1800). For the historical period (1850–2014), the trend of RX1day and RX3hour was insignificant in most subregions. In addition, the differences for RX1day between the historical period and the MCA/LIA were mostly in the range of −5% to 5%. For the future period (2015–2100), RX1day and RX3hour are projected to increase in almost all land grids compared with the historical period, and they show greater increases in western China than eastern China. The non‐stationarity of RX1day and RX3hour is mainly found under the high‐emission scenario. Moreover, stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution underestimates 50‐year return levels for RX1day and RX3hour in most areas compared with non‐stationary GEV distribution under the high‐emission scenario. Overall, this study suggests that daily and subdaily extreme precipitation will intensify over China in the future. For design storms, non‐stationary methods need to be used for risk management and engineering design under the high‐emission scenario.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Liu,

Chen,

Xiong

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Corresponding to the 850 hPa wind field, there is distinct cyclonic circulation in the South China Sea, anticyclonic circulation in the Western Pacific subtropical region, and a cyclone at mid-latitudes in Northeastern China. This results in the formation of a strong double-blocking circulation [41], with evident blocking patterns developing and persisting at middle and low latitudes in East Asia [53]. The formation and maintenance of the blocking high pressure and cutoff low pressure disrupt normal westerly circulation, preventing upstream fluctuations from propagating downstream and blocking the movement of cyclones and anticyclones on the ground; this circulation event is referred to as a blocking situation.…”

Section: Comparative Analysis Of the Average Situation Fields Of The ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This research explores the connection between extreme precipitation events, atmospheric rivers (ARs), and moisture contribution [33][34][35][36][37], using a moisture trajectory model to identify the primary moisture source of precipitation. Additionally, coupled models are employed to compare findings with Phase 6 of the project (CMIP6) model, analyzing various aspects such as the detection and attribution of extreme precipitation events [38][39][40][41]. Current research on extreme precipitation changes and their causes primarily exhibits two key characteristics: (1) While global analysis has shed light on the changing characteristics of extreme precipitation events from various perspectives, there is a need for more in-depth study on the specific indices of these events, particularly focusing on spatial and temporal distribution as well as rain pattern characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation and Causes of Typical Extreme Precipitation Events in Shandong Province over the Last 50 Years

Liu,

Li,

2024

Remote Sensing

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In this study, based on hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from July to September, from 1971 to 2020, for Shandong Province, we used mathematical statistical analysis, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cluster analysis, and other methods to extract and analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and causes of typical extreme precipitation events. The results indicated the following: (1) The total number and duration of precipitation events show a nonsignificant upward trend, while the average and extreme rainfall intensities show a nonsignificant downward trend. (2) Extreme precipitation events are primarily concentrated in Qingdao, Jinan, Heze, and Binzhou, with fewer events occurring in central Shandong Province. (3) Extreme precipitation events are classified into four types (namely, patterns I, II, III, and IV). Pattern I exhibits two rain peaks, with the primary rain peak occurring after the secondary rain peak. Similarly, pattern II also displays two rain peaks, with equivalent rainfall amounts for both peaks. In contrast, pattern III has multiple, evenly distributed rain peaks. Finally, pattern IV shows a rain peak during the first half of the precipitation event. Pattern I has the highest occurrence probability (46%), while pattern IV has the lowest (7%). (4) The spatial distributions of the different rain patterns are similar, with most being found in the eastern coastal and western regions. (5) Extreme precipitation events result from interactions between large-scale circulation configurations and mesoscale convective systems. The strong blocking situation and significant circulation transport at middle and low latitudes in East Asia, along with strong convergent uplift, abnormally high specific humidity, and high-water-vapor convergence centers, play crucial roles in supporting large-scale circulation systems and triggering mesoscale convective systems.

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“…Here, we investigate the Time of Emergence (ToE) of changes in precipitation intensity over GLM domain (Hawkins and Sutton 2012, Gaetani et al 2020, Dong et al 2022. Identifying the ToE, which is the time when an anthropogenic signal will emerge from the natural variability, provides valuable insight into the detection of regional changes in the hydrological cycle (Giorgi and Bi 2009, Gaetani et al 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of anthropogenic warming on emergence of extreme precipitation over global land monsoon area

Moon,

Ha,

Lee

2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Human activities have led to a global temperature increase, and the primary objective of the Paris Agreement is to limit this rise to 1.5℃ of warming level. Understanding the impact of global warming beyond preindustrial conditions on precipitation intensity is crucial for devising effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly in densely populated global land monsoon (GLM) regions. However, the time of emergence (ToE) of extreme summer monsoon precipitation and its dependency on global warming targets has rarely been investigated. Using large ensemble simulations forced by the SSP3-7.0 scenario, we reveal that the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on extreme precipitation intensity become evident in GLM regions before 2050, accompanied by a sudden expansion in areas where the ToE of extreme precipitation occurs. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that achieving the Paris Agreement goal at 1.5℃ of global warming level can prevent the ToE of extreme precipitation in Asian and African monsoon regions. This, in turn, has the potential to halve the number (over one billion) of individuals exposed to extreme precipitation. These findings highlight the urgent need for action to mitigate the risk associated with anthropogenic warming induced climate change.

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Detection and attribution of extreme precipitation events over the Asian monsoon region

Cited by 16 publications

References 54 publications

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Long‐term evolution and non‐stationary behaviours of daily and subdaily precipitation extremes in China

Spatiotemporal Variation and Causes of Typical Extreme Precipitation Events in Shandong Province over the Last 50 Years

Impact of anthropogenic warming on emergence of extreme precipitation over global land monsoon area

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