Detection of Space and Time Heterogeneity in the Completeness of a Seismic Catalog by a Statistical Approach: An Application to the Italian Area

Albarello, Dario; Camassi, Romano; Rebez, A.

doi:10.1785/0120000058

Cited by 77 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…They found that recording bias is dependent on both eruption size, since larger events are more likely to be recorded than smaller events, and on timing, as events that happened a long time ago are less likely to be known about today than more recent eruptions. This finding is consistent with work in other fields; for example, it is well known that the completeness of the seismic record decreases as one goes back in time, with larger magnitude earthquakes more likely to be recorded than smaller earthquakes [e.g., Tinti and Mulargia, 1985;Albarello et al, 2001;Woessner and Wiemer, 2005;Leonard, 2008;Grünthal et al, 2009;Wang et al, 2009].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…This phenomenon is not limited to volcanism; it is a well known problem in fields such as seismology [e.g., Tinti and Mulargia, 1985;Albarello et al, 2001;Woessner and Wiemer, 2005;Leonard, 2008;Grünthal et al, 2009;Wang et al, 2009]. The problem is made more complex because data biases also depends on magnitude with larger eruptions being more likely to recorded than small eruptions at any given age.…”

Section: Model Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions

Deligne¹,

Coles²,

Sparks³

2010

J. Geophys. Res.

129

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[1] A global database of large explosive volcanic eruptions has been compiled for the Holocene and analyzed using extreme value theory to estimate magnitude-frequency relationships. The database consists of explosive eruptions with magnitude (M) greater than or equal to 4. Two models are applied to the data, one assuming no underreporting of eruptions and the other taking underreporting into consideration. Results from the latter indicate that the level of underreporting is high and fairly constant from the start of the Holocene until about 1 A.D. and then decreases dramatically toward the present. Results indicate there is only a ∼20% probability that an explosive eruption of M = 6 occurring prior to 1 A.D. is recorded. Analysis of the data set in the time periods 1750 A.D. and 1900 A.D. to present (assuming no underreporting) suggests that that these periods are likely to be too short to give reliable estimates of return periods for explosive eruptions with M > 6. Analysis of the Holocene data set with corrections for underreporting bias provide robust magnitude-frequency relationships up to M = 7. Extrapolation of the model to greater magnitudes (M > 8) gives results inconsistent with geological data, predicting eruption size upper limits much smaller than known eruptions such as the Fish Canyon Tuff. We interpret this result as the consequence of different mechanisms operating for explosive eruptions with M > 7.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Model Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions

Deligne¹,

Coles²,

Sparks³

2010

J. Geophys. Res.

129

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“…2. Then, the completeness of the seismic history is assessed using the statistical procedure developed by Albarello et al (2001), which is based on the assumptions that a) the seismogenic process is stationary; b) the most recent part of the catalogue is complete; c) the catalogue is statistically representative of the long-term seismogenic process. 3.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic hazard assessment in Central Asia: Outcomes from a site approach

Bindi

Abdrakhmatov

Parolai

et al. 2012

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

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In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) , the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes non included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalogue composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6-8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one degree less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP;Ulomov, 1999). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan).2

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“…Stepp 1971;Tinti and Mulargia 1985;Musson 1999;Albarello et al 2001), based on the assumption that the seismogenic process is stationary. An alternative approach is the so-called "historical" one (see for instance Stucchi et al 2004Stucchi et al , 2011.…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) 1000–1899

et al. 2012

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In the frame of the European Commission project "Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe" (SHARE), aiming at harmonizing seismic hazard at a European scale, the compilation of a homogeneous, European parametric earthquake catalogue was planned. The goal was to be achieved by considering the most updated historical dataset and assessing homogenous magnitudes, with support from several institutions. This paper describes the SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC), which covers the time window 1000-1899. It strongly relies on the experience of the European Commission project "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology" (NERIES), a module of which was dedicated to create the European "Archive of Historical Earthquake Data" (AHEAD) and to establish methodologies to homogenously derive earthquake parameters from macroseismic data. AHEAD has supplied the final earthquake list, obtained after sorting J Seismol (2013) duplications out and eliminating many fake events; in addition, it supplied the most updated historical dataset. Macroseismic data points (MDPs) provided by AHEAD have been processed with updated, repeatable procedures, regionally calibrated against a set of recent, instrumental earthquakes, to obtain earthquake parameters. From the same data, a set of epicentral intensity-to-magnitude relations has been derived, with the aim of providing another set of homogeneous Mw estimates. Then, a strategy focussed on maximizing the homogeneity of the final epicentral location and Mw, has been adopted. Special care has been devoted also to supply location and Mw uncertainty. The paper focuses on the procedure adopted for the compilation of SHEEC and briefly comments on the achieved results.

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Detection of Space and Time Heterogeneity in the Completeness of a Seismic Catalog by a Statistical Approach: An Application to the Italian Area

Cited by 77 publications

References 22 publications

Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions

Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions

Seismic hazard assessment in Central Asia: Outcomes from a site approach

The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) 1000–1899

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