Determinanten der Regierungsbeständigkeit – Eine Event-History-Analyse von 40 parlamentarischen Demokratien

Abstract

Zusammenfassung: Der vorliegende Aufsatz widmet sich dem Thema Regierungsbeständigkeit in parlamentarischen Demokratien. Ausgehend von der Feststellung, dass es eine große Varianz zwischen den Regierungsdauern einzelner Länder gibt, wird zunächst die bisherige Literatur zu diesem Thema speziell nach der verwendeten Methodik hin untersucht. Hierbei kristallisiert sich die Event History Analysis allgemein und das Cox-Modell im speziellen als besonders gewinnversprechend heraus. Mit Hilfe dieses Modells werden im Anschluss die für das Regierungsscheitern relevanten Attribute an Hand eines neuen Datensatzes, primär bestehend aus Regierungs-und -logischen Ausrichtung und der Polarisation von Parlamentsparteien und im Kabinett vertretenen Parteien ausmachen. Auch die Art der Regierung spielt für deren Beständigkeit eine Rolle. Erstmals wird vergleichend getestet ob Parlaments-oder Regierungscharakteristika einen größeren Schlüsselwörter: Regierung · Überleben · Ereignisdatenanalyse · Parlamentarische DemokratienAbstract: This article deals with the question of governmental durability in parliamentary de--ferent countries, the existing literature has been examined particularly with regard to the methodology used. Event history analysis in general and the Cox-model in particular produce the best results for such studies. Therefore, this approach is applied for the analysis of several indicators for government termination using a new data set on governments and elections consisting of 40 countries. The effects of the number, the ideological positions, and the polarization of the parties -will be conducted to investigate whether the parliamentary or the governmental attributes have ZFVP (

Ministerial turnover in the German Länder (1991–2010)

“…In contrast, we often face an accumulation of different reasons resulting in the end of a ministerial spell (Dowding and Kang 1998). This phenomenon is well-established in the analysis of government terminations, and addresses the complex issue of precisely naming the type of terminal event (Budge and Keman 1990, p. 179;Jäckle 2011). The categorization is thus based on the most relevant type of termination, knowing that this decision is subjective and far from being without ambiguity.…”

“…Existing studies nevertheless show that shifting the focus from the national to subnational levels should not only be regarded as a means to increase the number of cases and thus to find more robust results when it comes to the general patterns of ministerial turnover, but also that analyses of political elites on the subnational level are an important building block for the understanding of more complex multilevel career patterns (Rodriguez-Teruel 2011;Stolz 2003). 2 In contrast to the much further developed literature on government survival (Jäckle 2009(Jäckle , 2011King et al 1990;Saalfeld 2008), this study focuses exclusively on the fate of individual ministers in the German Länder. The research question therefore is:…”

“…gender, age, education, experience in earlier cabinets). For the analysis I do not only borrow from existing works on ministerial careers on the national and (the few available ones) on the subnational level but also from the already quite extensive body of more institutionally focused government survival literature (Jäckle 2011;Laver 2003;Warwick 1994). This tradition is not only relevant because of its contextual proximity to ministerial turnover -when a government fails, this is very often also the end of a minister's career in cabinet, but also because the event 4 history methods developed in the course of this research can be applied fruitfully to the analysis in this paper.…”

What Comes after Cabinet? Post-Cabinet Careers of German Regional Ministers between 1945 and 2014

“…For an overview of the basic ideas behind the method of sequence analysis see MacIndoe and Abbott (2004); Blanchard et al (2014); Mills (2011); Cornwell (2015); and Jäckle (2017). In contrast to survival/event history models, which focus on the explanation of certain transitions from one state to another and have been applied in political elite studies in general and ministerial career studies in particular since the 1990s van de Walle 1991, 1992;Huber and Martinez-Gallardo 2008;Jäckle 2011), sequence analysis examines biographies with respect to their different partitions while still keeping the holistic view of the complete sequence: sequence analysis simultaneously takes into account the states, their order, and their durations. This feature makes it a more appropriate method to examine complete biographies or, as in this paper, longer periods of post-ministerial careers than those techniques focusing solely on certain single states, such as the first position immediately after the ministerial spell ended or approaches that look at the whole experience of a person, cumulating all career stages without taking into account the ordering or the duration of them.…”